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Shadowbroker
cfbeabda1e
* feat(telegram): auto-translate OSINT channel posts to English Cherry-picked from @Bobpick PR #391 (telegram-only slice): server-side translation during fetch, SHOW ORIGINAL toggle in TelegramOsintPopup, and on-demand /api/telegram-feed?lang=. Co-authored-by: Robert Pickett <bobpickettsr@yahoo.com> Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com> * feat(gt): experimental Derived OSINT analytics with lean-node safeguards Cherry-picked from @Bobpick PR #391 (GT + OpenClaw slice): Bayesian strategic-risk engine, map overlay, OpenClaw commands, and telegram_rhetoric watchdog. Off by default (GT_ANALYTICS_ENABLED=false, gt_risk layer false). 1 vCPU nodes get cgroup detection, UI warning on layer toggle, and lean profile that skips scheduled ingest/Louvain unless GT_ANALYTICS_ACK_LOW_CPU=true. Backtest HUD removed from dashboard (OpenClaw/API regression only). Co-authored-by: Robert Pickett <bobpickettsr@yahoo.com> Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Robert Pickett <bobpickettsr@yahoo.com> Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>
649 lines
28 KiB
Python
649 lines
28 KiB
Python
"""Curated historical early-warning cases for GT backtesting.
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Each positive case bundles pre-crisis costly-signal snippets drawn from documented
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precursors (financial, unrest, conflict). Negative cases are cheap-talk controls.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from dataclasses import dataclass, field
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from typing import Any, Literal
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CaseKind = Literal["positive", "negative"]
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class BacktestFeed:
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text: str
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source: str = "backtest"
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domain: str = "financial"
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days_before_event: int = 30
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class HistoricalCase:
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"""Single labeled backtest scenario."""
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case_id: str
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name: str
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region: str
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domain: str
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kind: CaseKind
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event_date: str
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description: str
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feeds: tuple[BacktestFeed, ...] = field(default_factory=tuple)
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tags: tuple[str, ...] = field(default_factory=tuple)
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def to_feed_dicts(self) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
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items: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
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for idx, feed in enumerate(self.feeds):
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items.append(
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{
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"id": f"{self.case_id}-{idx}",
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"text": feed.text,
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"source": feed.source,
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"region": self.region,
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"domain": feed.domain or self.domain,
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"published": feed.days_before_event,
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}
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)
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return items
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def _variant_case(case: HistoricalCase, suffix: str, feeds: tuple[BacktestFeed, ...]) -> HistoricalCase:
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return HistoricalCase(
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case_id=f"{case.case_id}__{suffix}",
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name=f"{case.name} ({suffix})",
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region=case.region,
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domain=case.domain,
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kind=case.kind,
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event_date=case.event_date,
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description=case.description,
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feeds=feeds,
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tags=case.tags + (f"variant:{suffix}",),
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)
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def expanded_historical_cases() -> tuple[HistoricalCase, ...]:
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"""Base suite plus paraphrase variants for statistical confidence."""
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base = list(default_historical_cases())
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extras: list[HistoricalCase] = []
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variant_feeds: dict[str, tuple[tuple[BacktestFeed, ...], ...]] = {
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"fin_2008_us": (
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Small businesses turn to payroll loan products as credit lines freeze.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=100,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"FDIC monitors liquidity crunch; interbank spreads widen sharply.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=60,
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),
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),
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Merchant cash advance volumes spike; payroll loan demand at record highs.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=80,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Money market funds see inflows as deposit flight from regional banks continues.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=40,
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),
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),
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),
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"fin_2020_supply": (
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Electronics firms report shipping delay and port congestion across Pearl River Delta.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=45,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Supply chain delay widens; logistics backlog hits automotive suppliers.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=20,
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),
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),
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Container shortage fuels shipping delay; supply chain delay indices jump.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=35,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Electronics assemblers warn of logistics backlog as port congestion spreads.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=20,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Automotive suppliers flag supply chain delay after factory shutdowns in Hubei.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=10,
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),
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),
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),
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"fin_2022_sanctions": (
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Treasury drafts new sanctions escalation package on energy and finance sectors.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=30,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Capital flight accelerates; elite relocation flights depart Moscow airports.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=14,
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),
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),
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),
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"unrest_arab_spring_egypt": (
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Cairo activists schedule mass rally; protest mobilization leaflets distributed.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=18,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Labor federations call general strike; strike posters cover downtown.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=8,
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),
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),
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),
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"conflict_2022_ukraine": (
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Convoy of armored vehicles confirms troop movement near Sumy Oblast.",
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source="t.me/war_monitor",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=20,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"GNSS interference warnings follow GPS jamming spike along Belarus border.",
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source="t.me/osintdefender",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=10,
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),
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),
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(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Military mobilization notices circulate; troop buildup confirmed by satellite firms.",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=12,
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),
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),
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),
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"neg_weather_us": (
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(
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BacktestFeed("Autumn foliage peaks in Vermont; pleasant hiking weather continues."),
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BacktestFeed("County fair announces pie contest and livestock exhibitions."),
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),
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(
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BacktestFeed("Meteorologists predict mild hurricane season remainder for Gulf Coast."),
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),
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),
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"neg_sports_uk": (
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(
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BacktestFeed("Rugby Six Nations standings update after weekend fixtures."),
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BacktestFeed("Local marathon registration opens for charity runners."),
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),
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),
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"neg_tech_global": (
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(
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BacktestFeed("Chipmaker announces efficiency gains in next-generation processor."),
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BacktestFeed("Cloud provider opens new green datacenter in Nordic region."),
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),
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),
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}
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for case in base:
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variants = variant_feeds.get(case.case_id, ())
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for idx, feeds in enumerate(variants):
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extras.append(_variant_case(case, f"v{idx+1}", feeds))
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# Additional cheap-talk controls to widen negative sample
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cheap_talk_regions = (
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("australia", "Museum opens contemporary art exhibit to strong attendance."),
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("spain", "Tomato harvest festival scheduled; regional trains add weekend service."),
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("south_korea", "K-pop group announces world tour dates for autumn."),
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("mexico", "Coastal cleanup volunteers restore beach habitats before holiday season."),
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("sweden", "City council approves bike lane expansion along waterfront."),
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("norway", "Salmon exports remain stable; fishing fleets report normal catch volumes."),
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("italy", "Truffle festival returns; restaurants publish seasonal tasting menus."),
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("poland", "University researchers release open-source astronomy software."),
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("thailand", "Monsoon rains ease; rice planting proceeds on normal schedule."),
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("vietnam", "Electronics assembly plants report steady export order books."),
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("south_africa", "Wildlife reserve reports rising ecotourism bookings."),
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("argentina", "Wine harvest festival opens; export cooperatives meet volume targets."),
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("netherlands", "Cycling championship draws international teams to canal district."),
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("belgium", "Chocolate exporters report stable holiday shipment schedules."),
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("portugal", "Offshore wind auction attracts multiple renewable bidders."),
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("greece", "Island ferry operators add routes ahead of summer travel season."),
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("turkey", "Cotton harvest forecast unchanged; textile orders stable."),
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("indonesia", "Volcano monitoring reports routine activity; tourism continues."),
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("philippines", "Coconut processors report normal logistics to export markets."),
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("malaysia", "Palm oil shipments on schedule; port throughput normal."),
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("new_zealand", "Sheep shearing competition draws rural crowds."),
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("ireland", "Tech conference highlights open-source database tooling."),
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("finland", "Sauna culture festival celebrates heritage with local artisans."),
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("denmark", "Wind turbine maintenance contracts renewed on prior terms."),
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("austria", "Ski resorts prepare slopes after early snowfall."),
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("switzerland", "Watchmakers unveil mechanical movement prototypes at trade fair."),
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("czech_republic", "Glassmakers export decorative pieces ahead of holiday season."),
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("romania", "Carpathian hiking trails reopen after spring maintenance."),
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("hungary", "Thermal bath tourism bookings rise for winter wellness season."),
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("peru", "Coffee cooperatives report stable harvest and export schedules."),
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("colombia", "Flower exporters prepare Valentine's shipments on normal cadence."),
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("morocco", "Citrus harvest meets forecasts; agricultural credit unchanged."),
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("kenya", "Tea auction volumes steady; freight routes operate normally."),
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("nigeria", "Nollywood studio announces family comedy release dates."),
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("ethiopia", "Coffee ceremony festival highlights regional bean varieties."),
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("saudi_arabia", "Desert conservation project plants drought-resistant shrubs."),
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("uae", "Airport duty-free operators expand luxury retail concourse."),
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("qatar", "Stadium operators prepare hospitality packages for sporting events."),
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("singapore", "Port authority reports container throughput on seasonal trend."),
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("hong_kong", "Art auction previews draw collectors to harborfront gallery."),
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("chile", "Vineyard tours report strong bookings ahead of harvest festival weekend."),
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("uruguay", "Beef exporters maintain steady shipment schedules to European buyers."),
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("iceland", "Geothermal spa resorts report normal winter visitor volumes."),
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("luxembourg", "Fund administrators publish routine quarterly disclosure filings."),
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("slovakia", "Mountain lodges prepare ski season openings after early snowfall."),
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("croatia", "Adriatic ferry operators add summer routes on prior timetable."),
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("bulgaria", "Rose oil cooperatives report stable export volumes to fragrance buyers."),
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("serbia", "Danube barge traffic proceeds on normal freight schedules."),
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("latvia", "Timber mills export lumber on unchanged contract terms."),
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("lithuania", "Baltic wind farms complete scheduled turbine maintenance rotations."),
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("estonia", "Digital residency applications processed at routine monthly pace."),
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("panama", "Canal transit volumes remain on seasonal trend; shipping fees unchanged."),
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)
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for idx, (region, text) in enumerate(cheap_talk_regions):
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extras.append(
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id=f"neg_extra_{idx:02d}",
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name=f"Benign regional news ({region})",
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region=region,
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domain="financial",
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kind="negative",
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event_date="2020-01-01",
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description="Expanded cheap-talk control.",
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feeds=(BacktestFeed(text),),
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tags=("control", "expanded"),
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)
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)
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return tuple(base + extras)
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def default_historical_cases() -> tuple[HistoricalCase, ...]:
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"""Benchmark suite — expand as new validated precursors are added."""
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return (
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# ── Financial distress ─────────────────────────────────────────────
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="fin_2008_us",
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name="2008 US financial crisis",
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region="united_states",
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domain="financial",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2008-09-15",
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description="Payroll-loan distress, liquidity crunch, and deposit flight precursors.",
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tags=("2008", "financial", "lehman"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Franchise operators increasingly rely on payroll loan facilities as working capital tightens.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=120,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Regional banks report liquidity crunch; CFOs warn of merchant cash advance reliance.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=90,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Deposit flight accelerates at mid-size lenders; analysts flag bank run risk.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=45,
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),
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),
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),
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="fin_2020_supply",
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name="COVID supply-chain shock",
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region="china",
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domain="financial",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2020-02-01",
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description="Port congestion and logistics backlog ahead of global supply shock.",
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tags=("covid", "supply_chain", "financial"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Major port congestion reported; shipping delay spreads to electronics suppliers.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=60,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Automakers warn of supply chain delay and logistics backlog across Wuhan corridor.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=30,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Factory restarts slip as supply delay and port congestion persist into Q1.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=14,
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),
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),
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),
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="fin_2022_sanctions",
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name="Russia sanctions escalation",
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region="russia",
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domain="financial",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2022-02-24",
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description="Sanctions escalation and capital flight ahead of invasion.",
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tags=("sanctions", "ukraine", "financial"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Western allies prepare new sanctions escalation on major Russian banks.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=45,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Oligarch jet movements suggest elite relocation and capital flight from Moscow.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=21,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Central bank intervenes as new sanctions tighten export controls on finance sector.",
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domain="financial",
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days_before_event=10,
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),
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),
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),
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# ── Civil unrest ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="unrest_arab_spring_tunisia",
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name="Arab Spring — Tunisia",
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region="tunisia",
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domain="unrest",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2010-12-17",
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description="Protest mobilization and strike waves before Jasmine Revolution.",
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tags=("arab_spring", "unrest"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Student groups announce protest mobilization after vendor self-immolation.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=14,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Mass rally planned in Tunis; general strike called by labor unions.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=7,
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),
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),
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),
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="unrest_arab_spring_egypt",
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name="Arab Spring — Egypt",
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region="egypt",
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domain="unrest",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2011-01-25",
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description="Mobilization spikes and security reshuffles before Tahrir.",
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tags=("arab_spring", "unrest"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Opposition calls protest mobilization in Cairo; strike notices circulate online.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=21,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Reports of political purge within interior ministry security apparatus reshuffle.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=10,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Mass rally and strike coordination spreads; rally posters appear in Alexandria.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=5,
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),
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),
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),
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="unrest_2019_chile",
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name="Chile 2019 metro protests",
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region="chile",
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domain="unrest",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2019-10-18",
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description="Transit fare protests escalate to general strike.",
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tags=("unrest", "latam"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Students organize mass rally after metro fare hike; protest mobilization trending.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=10,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Unions announce general strike; rally and strike hashtags spike nationwide.",
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domain="unrest",
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days_before_event=3,
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),
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),
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),
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# ── Conflict / war ───────────────────────────────────────────────
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="conflict_2022_ukraine",
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name="2022 Ukraine invasion buildup",
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region="ukraine",
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domain="conflict",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2022-02-24",
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description="Troop movement and GPS jamming precursors on northern border.",
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tags=("ukraine", "conflict"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"OSINT reports troop movement and armored convoy near Belarus border.",
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source="t.me/war_monitor",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=30,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"GPS jamming spike reported along northern corridor; GNSS interference warnings issued.",
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source="t.me/osintdefender",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=14,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Satellite imagery shows troop buildup; military mobilization near Kharkiv axis.",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=7,
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),
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),
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),
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="conflict_2023_gaza",
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name="2023 Gaza conflict escalation",
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region="israel",
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domain="conflict",
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kind="positive",
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event_date="2023-10-07",
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description="Ceasefire breakdown and troop movement signals.",
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tags=("gaza", "conflict"),
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feeds=(
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BacktestFeed(
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"Border units report troop movement near Gaza envelope; ceasefire broken overnight.",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=14,
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),
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BacktestFeed(
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"Truce end announced; armored convoy repositioning reported by local observers.",
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domain="conflict",
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days_before_event=5,
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),
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),
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),
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HistoricalCase(
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case_id="conflict_2020_nagorno",
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name="2020 Nagorno-Karabakh renewal",
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region="armenia",
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domain="conflict",
|
|
kind="positive",
|
|
event_date="2020-09-27",
|
|
description="Artillery and troop buildup precursors.",
|
|
tags=("caucasus", "conflict"),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed(
|
|
"Drone strikes reported on line of contact; troop movement on Armenian-Azeri border.",
|
|
domain="conflict",
|
|
days_before_event=21,
|
|
),
|
|
BacktestFeed(
|
|
"GPS jamming spike reported in conflict zone; military mobilization notices leaked.",
|
|
domain="conflict",
|
|
days_before_event=7,
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
# ── Recent financial / corporate distress pattern ────────────────
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="fin_2023_banking",
|
|
name="2023 regional banking stress",
|
|
region="united_states",
|
|
domain="financial",
|
|
kind="positive",
|
|
event_date="2023-03-10",
|
|
description="Deposit flight and liquidity stress (SVB precursor pattern).",
|
|
tags=("svb", "financial", "2023"),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed(
|
|
"Tech lenders face deposit flight; VC portfolio companies move payroll to money market funds.",
|
|
domain="financial",
|
|
days_before_event=21,
|
|
),
|
|
BacktestFeed(
|
|
"Analysts warn liquidity crunch at regional banks holding long-duration bonds.",
|
|
domain="financial",
|
|
days_before_event=7,
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
# ── Negative controls (cheap talk / benign) ─────────────────────
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_weather_us",
|
|
name="Benign weather coverage",
|
|
region="united_states",
|
|
domain="financial",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2019-06-01",
|
|
description="No costly signals — should remain near baseline.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("Sunny weekend expected across the Midwest with mild temperatures."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Local festival draws crowds; farmers market expands summer hours."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_sports_uk",
|
|
name="Benign sports coverage",
|
|
region="uk",
|
|
domain="unrest",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2018-07-01",
|
|
description="Sports chatter without mobilization costly signals.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("Premier league season review: top scorers and transfer rumors."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Cricket test match ends early due to rain delay at Lord's."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_tech_global",
|
|
name="Benign tech product launch",
|
|
region="global",
|
|
domain="financial",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2021-09-01",
|
|
description="Corporate product news without distress markers.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("Smartphone maker unveils new camera features at annual keynote."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Quarterly earnings beat expectations; dividend unchanged."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_tourism_france",
|
|
name="Benign tourism recovery",
|
|
region="france",
|
|
domain="unrest",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2022-08-01",
|
|
description="Travel sector recovery without unrest signals.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("Paris hotels report record summer bookings as tourism rebounds."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Airline adds routes to Nice and Marseille for holiday travelers."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_science_japan",
|
|
name="Benign science news",
|
|
region="japan",
|
|
domain="conflict",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2020-11-01",
|
|
description="Research coverage without conflict markers.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("Astronomy team publishes comet observations from Mount Fuji observatory."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Robotics lab demonstrates warehouse automation prototype."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_agriculture_brazil",
|
|
name="Benign agriculture report",
|
|
region="brazil",
|
|
domain="financial",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2017-03-01",
|
|
description="Commodity harvest update without supply distress.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("Soybean harvest forecast revised upward; export volumes steady."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Coffee cooperative reports normal shipping schedules to European buyers."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_culture_india",
|
|
name="Benign culture coverage",
|
|
region="india",
|
|
domain="unrest",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2016-11-01",
|
|
description="Festival coverage without mobilization.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("Diwali celebrations begin; cities decorate markets with lights."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Film festival opens in Mumbai with premiere screenings."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
HistoricalCase(
|
|
case_id="neg_infrastructure_canada",
|
|
name="Benign infrastructure ribbon-cutting",
|
|
region="canada",
|
|
domain="financial",
|
|
kind="negative",
|
|
event_date="2015-05-01",
|
|
description="Municipal news without financial stress.",
|
|
tags=("control",),
|
|
feeds=(
|
|
BacktestFeed("New light-rail segment opens on schedule; commute times improve."),
|
|
BacktestFeed("Municipal bond issuance funds library renovation at prior rates."),
|
|
),
|
|
),
|
|
) |