v1.92.79.0 fix: /plan-tune stops reporting mismatches with no observed answers behind them (#3436) (#3856)

* fix(plan-tune): compare declared and inferred only with 3+ observed answers (#3436)

Co-authored-by: capy-ai[bot] <230910855+capy-ai[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* test: derive keeps the gap at 3 events; changelog fragment for #3436

Co-authored-by: capy-ai[bot] <230910855+capy-ai[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* fix(plan-tune): profile view and design doc honor the 3-answer floor (#3436)

Co-authored-by: capy-ai[bot] <230910855+capy-ai[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* fix(plan-tune): keep the 10-answer floor in --check-mismatch beside the per-dimension floor

Co-authored-by: capy-ai[bot] <230910855+capy-ai[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: capy-ai[bot] <230910855+capy-ai[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,5 +1,16 @@
 # Changelog
 
+## [1.92.79.0] - 2026-11-02
+
+**/plan-tune no longer reports a mismatch between your stated and observed preferences when it has no observed answers behind it (#3436).** `--check-mismatch` compared a declared value against an inferred value that had never moved from its 0.5 starting point, so a strong declaration with no matching answers printed `scope_appetite: declared 0.9 vs inferred 0.5 (gap 0.4)` even though no logged answer touched that dimension.
+
+### Fixed
+- **`bin/gstack-developer-profile`**: `--check-mismatch`, `--gap` and the gap that `--derive` stores compare a dimension only when at least 3 logged answers moved it. `--check-mismatch` still needs 10 logged answers overall before it reports anything. Below the 3-answer floor, `--check-mismatch` prints `no observed evidence` or `too little evidence (n of 3 events)` instead of a gap, and `--gap` lists the dimension under a new `low_evidence` field. A profile derived before `contributing_events` existed keeps the old behavior until its next derive.
+- **/plan-tune "Show gap"**: says "not enough observed answers yet" for those dimensions instead of calling them drift.
+
+### Tests
+- `test/gstack-developer-profile.test.ts`: a declared dimension with no evidence is not flagged by `--check-mismatch` or `--gap` (both failed on main), 1 or 2 events report too little evidence, 3 events are compared, three same-day answers that agree with the declaration still report not enough data, and `--derive` stores no gap without evidence.
+
 ## [1.92.78.0] - 2026-11-02
 
 **Seven flaky tests from the 2026-11-01 flaky pass stop failing correct runs, and six more now name their cause when they fail.** One product lock broke a fresh lock it had misjudged as abandoned, a /ship lane tripped the free runner's home check with its own log, and the rest were fixtures that raced their own setup, leaned on wall-clock sleeps or read the caller's state root.

VERSION

@@ -1 +1 @@
-1.92.78.0
+1.92.79.0

agents-digest/gstack-AGENTS.md

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-# gstack digest v1.92.78.0 — regenerate/re-copy after upgrading gstack
+# gstack digest v1.92.79.0 — regenerate/re-copy after upgrading gstack
 
 Behavioral rules from gstack (https://github.com/garrytan/gstack), compressed
 for agent hosts without a full skill install. The full skills add workflows,

bin/gstack-developer-profile

@@ -54,6 +54,7 @@ case "$(uname -s)" in
 esac
 PROFILE_FILE="$GSTACK_HOME/developer-profile.json"
 LEGACY_FILE="$GSTACK_HOME/builder-profile.jsonl"
+MIN_EVIDENCE=3
 eval "$("$SCRIPT_DIR/gstack-slug" 2>/dev/null || true)"
 SLUG="${SLUG:-unknown}"
 
@@ -512,14 +513,19 @@ do_gap() {
     const p = JSON.parse(await Bun.stdin.text());
     const declared = p.declared || {};
     const inferred = (p.inferred && p.inferred.values) || {};
+    const contributing = p.inferred && p.inferred.contributing_events;
     const dims = ['scope_appetite','risk_tolerance','detail_preference','autonomy','architecture_care'];
     const gap = {};
+    const low_evidence = {};
     for (const d of dims) {
-      if (declared[d] !== undefined && inferred[d] !== undefined) {
+      if (declared[d] === undefined || inferred[d] === undefined) continue;
-        gap[d] = +(Math.abs(declared[d] - inferred[d])).toFixed(3);
+      if (contributing && (contributing[d] || 0) < $MIN_EVIDENCE) {
+        low_evidence[d] = contributing[d] || 0;
+        continue;
       }
+      gap[d] = +(Math.abs(declared[d] - inferred[d])).toFixed(3);
     }
-    console.log(JSON.stringify({ declared, inferred, gap }, null, 2));
+    console.log(JSON.stringify({ declared, inferred, gap, low_evidence }, null, 2));
   "
 }
 
@@ -657,6 +663,7 @@ do_derive() {
       // Recompute gap.
       const gap = {};
       for (const d of Object.keys(values)) {
+        if ((contributing[d] || 0) < $MIN_EVIDENCE) continue;
         if (profile.declared && profile.declared[d] !== undefined) {
           gap[d] = +(Math.abs(profile.declared[d] - values[d])).toFixed(3);
         }
@@ -727,9 +734,8 @@ do_check_mismatch() {
     const declared = p.declared || {};
     const inferred = (p.inferred && p.inferred.values) || {};
     const sampleSize = (p.inferred && p.inferred.sample_size) || 0;
-    const diversity = (p.inferred && p.inferred.diversity) || {};
+    const contributing = p.inferred && p.inferred.contributing_events;
 
-    // Require enough data before reporting mismatch.
     if (sampleSize < 10) {
       console.log('MISMATCH: not enough data (' + sampleSize + ' events; need 10+)');
       process.exit(0);
@@ -737,8 +743,14 @@ do_check_mismatch() {
 
     const THRESHOLD = 0.3;
     const flagged = [];
+    const thin = [];
     for (const d of Object.keys(declared)) {
       if (inferred[d] === undefined) continue;
+      const n = contributing ? (contributing[d] || 0) : undefined;
+      if (n !== undefined && n < $MIN_EVIDENCE) {
+        thin.push('  ' + d + ': ' + (n === 0 ? 'no observed evidence' : 'too little evidence (' + n + ' of $MIN_EVIDENCE events)'));
+        continue;
+      }
       const gap = Math.abs(declared[d] - inferred[d]);
       if (gap > THRESHOLD) {
         flagged.push({ dim: d, declared: declared[d], inferred: inferred[d], gap: +gap.toFixed(3) });
@@ -753,6 +765,7 @@ do_check_mismatch() {
         console.log('  ' + f.dim + ': declared ' + f.declared + ' vs inferred ' + f.inferred + ' (gap ' + f.gap + ')');
       }
     }
+    for (const line of thin) console.log(line);
   "
 }
 

docs/designs/PLAN_TUNING_V0.md

@@ -105,7 +105,7 @@ After weighing Codex's argument, we chose to roll back CEO EXPANSION and ship an
 }
 ```
 
-`signal_events` counts the logged answers that moved any dimension, and `contributing_events` counts, per dimension, the logged answers that moved it (an answer that writes two deltas to one dimension counts once), so a dimension with no evidence (0) is visible beside one whose evidence balances out; both print 0.5 (#2623). Each value is the sigmoid of its accumulated deltas, and each UTC day's sum per dimension (by the row's `ts`) is clamped to the largest single delta in the signal map (currently ±0.06), so one burst of answers can't pin a dimension; `--trace <dim>` lists every contributing answer, each clamped day and the total. The bound keys on the day, not on `session_id`: the PostToolUse hook and the agent log different ids for the same review (the host's conversation id and the preamble's run id), and an agent can leave the `SESSION_ID` placeholder unsubstituted, so no logged id reliably marks one review. The cost is that several reviews on one day count as one. `contributing_events` still counts an answer logged by both writers twice. Only an ISO 8601 date or date-time `ts` counts as dated (a time without a zone is read as UTC), every other row shares one undated bucket, and `diversity.days_span` counts the same UTC days. Nothing displays `contributing_events` yet (#3436).
+`signal_events` counts the logged answers that moved any dimension, and `contributing_events` counts, per dimension, the logged answers that moved it (an answer that writes two deltas to one dimension counts once), so a dimension with no evidence (0) is visible beside one whose evidence balances out; both print 0.5 (#2623). Each value is the sigmoid of its accumulated deltas, and each UTC day's sum per dimension (by the row's `ts`) is clamped to the largest single delta in the signal map (currently ±0.06), so one burst of answers can't pin a dimension; `--trace <dim>` lists every contributing answer, each clamped day and the total. The bound keys on the day, not on `session_id`: the PostToolUse hook and the agent log different ids for the same review (the host's conversation id and the preamble's run id), and an agent can leave the `SESSION_ID` placeholder unsubstituted, so no logged id reliably marks one review. The cost is that several reviews on one day count as one. `contributing_events` still counts an answer logged by both writers twice. Only an ISO 8601 date or date-time `ts` counts as dated (a time without a zone is read as UTC), every other row shares one undated bucket, and `diversity.days_span` counts the same UTC days. `--check-mismatch`, `--gap`, the stored `gap` and /plan-tune's profile view compare a dimension only when its `contributing_events` is at least 3; `--gap` lists the others under `low_evidence` and the stored `gap` omits them (#3436).
 
 **Diversity check** (Codex #13): `inferred` is considered "enough data" only when `sample_size >= 20 AND skills_covered >= 3 AND question_ids_covered >= 8 AND days_span >= 7`. Below this, `/plan-tune profile` shows "not enough observed data yet" instead of a potentially-misleading inferred value.
 

package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "gstack",
-  "version": "1.92.78",
+  "version": "1.92.79",
   "description": "Garry's Stack — Claude Code skills + fast headless browser. One repo, one install, entire AI engineering workflow.",
   "license": "MIT",
   "type": "module",

plan-tune/SKILL.md

@@ -341,6 +341,8 @@ Parse the JSON. Present in **plain English**, not raw floats:
   the inferred column next to declared:
   "**scope_appetite:** declared 0.8 (boil the ocean) ↔ observed 0.72 (close)"
   Use words for the gap: 0.0-0.1 "close", 0.1-0.3 "drift", 0.3+ "mismatch".
+  When `inferred.contributing_events[dim]` is below 3, show "not enough
+  observed answers yet" for that dimension instead of an observed value or gap word.
 
   This display gate is intentionally lower than the E1 **promotion gate**
   (90+ days stable across 3+ skills, per `docs/designs/PLAN_TUNING_V0.md`).
@@ -491,6 +493,9 @@ Parse the JSON. For each dimension where both declared and inferred exist:
   Consider updating your declared value, or reflect on whether your behavior
   is actually what you want."
 
+For each dimension in `low_evidence` (fewer than 3 observed answers moved it),
+say "not enough observed answers yet" instead of a gap.
+
 Never auto-update declared based on the gap. In v1 the gap is reporting only —
 the user decides whether declared is wrong or behavior is wrong.
 

plan-tune/SKILL.md.tmpl

@@ -272,6 +272,8 @@ Parse the JSON. Present in **plain English**, not raw floats:
   the inferred column next to declared:
   "**scope_appetite:** declared 0.8 (boil the ocean) ↔ observed 0.72 (close)"
   Use words for the gap: 0.0-0.1 "close", 0.1-0.3 "drift", 0.3+ "mismatch".
+  When `inferred.contributing_events[dim]` is below 3, show "not enough
+  observed answers yet" for that dimension instead of an observed value or gap word.
 
   This display gate is intentionally lower than the E1 **promotion gate**
   (90+ days stable across 3+ skills, per `docs/designs/PLAN_TUNING_V0.md`).
@@ -422,6 +424,9 @@ Parse the JSON. For each dimension where both declared and inferred exist:
   Consider updating your declared value, or reflect on whether your behavior
   is actually what you want."
 
+For each dimension in `low_evidence` (fewer than 3 observed answers moved it),
+say "not enough observed answers yet" instead of a gap.
+
 Never auto-update declared based on the gap. In v1 the gap is reporting only —
 the user decides whether declared is wrong or behavior is wrong.
 

test/gstack-developer-profile.test.ts

@@ -622,6 +622,98 @@ describe('gstack-developer-profile --check-mismatch', () => {
     expect(r.stdout).toContain('scope_appetite');
     expect(r.stdout).toContain('autonomy');
   });
+
+  const deriveWithOneSignal = () => {
+    logQuestion({ skill: 'plan-eng-review', question_id: 'plan-eng-review-arch-finding', question_summary: 'arch?', user_choice: 'fix-now', session_id: 's0' });
+    for (let i = 1; i < 13; i++) {
+      logQuestion({ skill: 'plan-eng-review', question_id: `adhoc-unregistered-${i}`, question_summary: 'x', user_choice: 'anything', session_id: `s${i}` });
+    }
+    expect(runDev('--derive').status).toBe(0);
+    const file = path.join(tmpHome, 'developer-profile.json');
+    const p = readProfile() as any;
+    expect(p.inferred.contributing_events.scope_appetite).toBe(0);
+    p.declared = { scope_appetite: 0.9 };
+    fs.writeFileSync(file, JSON.stringify(p));
+  };
+
+  test('a declared dimension with no observed evidence is not flagged (#3436)', () => {
+    deriveWithOneSignal();
+    const r = runDev('--check-mismatch');
+    expect(r.status).toBe(0);
+    expect(r.stdout).not.toContain('scope_appetite: declared');
+    expect(r.stdout).toContain('scope_appetite: no observed evidence');
+  });
+
+  test('--gap leaves out a dimension with no observed evidence (#3436)', () => {
+    deriveWithOneSignal();
+    const out = JSON.parse(runDev('--gap').stdout);
+    expect(out.gap.scope_appetite).toBeUndefined();
+    expect(out.low_evidence).toEqual({ scope_appetite: 0 });
+  });
+
+  test('a dimension with 1 or 2 contributing events reports too little evidence', () => {
+    runDev('--read');
+    const file = path.join(tmpHome, 'developer-profile.json');
+    const p = readProfile() as any;
+    p.declared = { scope_appetite: 0.9 };
+    p.inferred.values.scope_appetite = 0.45;
+    p.inferred.sample_size = 10;
+    p.inferred.contributing_events = { scope_appetite: 2 };
+    fs.writeFileSync(file, JSON.stringify(p));
+    const r = runDev('--check-mismatch');
+    expect(r.stdout).toContain('MISMATCH: none');
+    expect(r.stdout).toContain('scope_appetite: too little evidence (2 of 3 events)');
+    expect(JSON.parse(runDev('--gap').stdout).low_evidence).toEqual({ scope_appetite: 2 });
+  });
+
+  test('a dimension with 3 contributing events is compared', () => {
+    runDev('--read');
+    const file = path.join(tmpHome, 'developer-profile.json');
+    const p = readProfile() as any;
+    p.declared = { scope_appetite: 0.9 };
+    p.inferred.values.scope_appetite = 0.45;
+    p.inferred.sample_size = 10;
+    p.inferred.contributing_events = { scope_appetite: 3 };
+    fs.writeFileSync(file, JSON.stringify(p));
+    expect(runDev('--check-mismatch').stdout).toContain('scope_appetite: declared 0.9 vs inferred 0.45 (gap 0.45)');
+    expect(JSON.parse(runDev('--gap').stdout).gap.scope_appetite).toBeCloseTo(0.45, 2);
+  });
+
+  test('three same-day answers that agree with the declaration are not a mismatch', () => {
+    for (let i = 0; i < 3; i++) {
+      logQuestion({ skill: 'plan-ceo-review', question_id: 'plan-ceo-review-mode', question_summary: 'mode?', user_choice: 'expand', session_id: `s${i}`, ts: '2026-10-20T12:00:00Z' });
+    }
+    expect(runDev('--derive').status).toBe(0);
+    const file = path.join(tmpHome, 'developer-profile.json');
+    const p = readProfile() as any;
+    expect(p.inferred.contributing_events.scope_appetite).toBe(3);
+    p.declared = { scope_appetite: 0.9 };
+    fs.writeFileSync(file, JSON.stringify(p));
+    const r = runDev('--check-mismatch');
+    expect(r.stdout).toContain('not enough data');
+    expect(r.stdout).not.toContain('scope_appetite: declared');
+  });
+
+  test('derive stores the gap for a dimension with 3 contributing events', () => {
+    for (let i = 0; i < 3; i++) {
+      logQuestion({ skill: 'plan-eng-review', question_id: 'plan-eng-review-arch-finding', question_summary: 'arch?', user_choice: 'fix-now', session_id: `s${i}`, ts: `2026-10-2${i}T12:00:00Z` });
+    }
+    expect(runDev('--derive').status).toBe(0);
+    const file = path.join(tmpHome, 'developer-profile.json');
+    const p = readProfile() as any;
+    expect(p.inferred.contributing_events.architecture_care).toBe(3);
+    p.declared = { architecture_care: 0.1 };
+    fs.writeFileSync(file, JSON.stringify(p));
+    expect(runDev('--derive').status).toBe(0);
+    expect((readProfile() as any).gap.architecture_care).toBeGreaterThan(0.3);
+  });
+
+  test('derive stores no gap for a dimension without evidence', () => {
+    deriveWithOneSignal();
+    expect(runDev('--derive').status).toBe(0);
+    const p = readProfile() as any;
+    expect(p.gap.scope_appetite).toBeUndefined();
+  });
 });
 
 // -----------------------------------------------------------------------