feat(skills): claimed limitations now require evidence, everywhere + wave follow-ups filed

Every tier-2+ skill's preamble gains one directive distilled from nine live
release failures in two days on the fork: a claimed limitation or
requirement ('the API can't do this', 'X requires a credential',
'impossible on this platform') is a material claim, stated only with the
verbatim error, the documented statement, or a live probe in hand —
pattern-matching a failure to a familiar story is not evidence, and a cheap
probe runs BEFORE asking the user or declaring a step blocked. ONE directive
adapted into the preamble resolver; the fork's full judgment contract is
deliberately not imported. Full regen (46 files), ship goldens refreshed,
parity guards bumped with the measured ~0.45KB/skill (investigate, autoplan,
plan-design-review, office-hours), Step 0.9 registered as an intentional
sub-step.

Approved deferrals filed: persona-fleet hostile-user harness + answer-key
methodology in TODOS; the fork's question-budget ACCOUNTING judgment (never
its 5/8/12 constants) folded into the V1.1 pacing design doc; the Apple
adapter added to #1882's coverage note.

Ported from time-attack/gstack (GStack 2).

Co-authored-by: Sina Matian <sina@time-attack.dev>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

test/helpers/carve-guards.ts

@@ -208,10 +208,12 @@ export const CARVE_GUARDS: Record<string, CarveGuard> = {
     // always-loaded AskUserQuestion Format section.
     // v1.2.0 activation lift (shared first-run-guidance preamble) + #2077 ask-first scope gate.
     // +~1.3 KB: plan-mode auto-select-B scope-gate exceptions (2026-08).
-    maxSkeletonBytes: 89_000,
+    // Fork port wave 2 (D1): evidence directive adds ~0.45KB to every
+    // tier-2+ skeleton. Measured 89,184.
+    maxSkeletonBytes: 91_000,
     minUnionBytes: 70_000,
     mustContain: ['design', 'visual'],
-    maxSizeRatio: 1.07,
+    maxSizeRatio: 1.12, // D1 measured 1.104
   },
   'plan-devex-review': {
     skill: 'plan-devex-review',
@@ -255,12 +257,12 @@ export const CARVE_GUARDS: Record<string, CarveGuard> = {
     // plus the P1 office-hours closing handoff (AUQ that launches the next skill).
     // Fork port wave 2: the third-party web-actions contract sits inline
     // (judgment must be visible before the workflow directs the user to a
-    // vendor site), plus the #703 dual-write + repo-doc-preference block —
-    // ratio 1.092 measured. Tight headroom.
+    // vendor site), plus the #703 dual-write + repo-doc-preference block and
+    // the #538 opt-out + D1 evidence directive — ratio 1.104 measured.
     maxSkeletonBytes: 101_000,
     minUnionBytes: 70_000,
     mustContain: ['design doc', 'problem statement'],
-    maxSizeRatio: 1.10,
+    maxSizeRatio: 1.12,
   },
   'document-release': {
     skill: 'document-release',

test/helpers/parity-harness.ts

@@ -240,7 +240,9 @@ const MONOLITH_INVARIANTS: ParityInvariant[] = [
     // 1.09 → 1.10: the plan-mode preamble reword (scope-gate auto-select-B
     // change) adds ~250 B to every skill's shared preamble; investigate was
     // the closest to its ceiling (landed 1.092).
-    maxSizeRatio: 1.10,
+        // Fork port wave 2 (D1): the evidence-before-claimed-limitations preamble
+    // directive adds ~0.45KB to every tier-2+ skill. Measured values noted.
+    maxSizeRatio: 1.12, // D1 measured
     minBytes: 30_000,
   },
   {
@@ -248,7 +250,9 @@ const MONOLITH_INVARIANTS: ParityInvariant[] = [
     mustContain: ['ceo', 'eng', 'design'],
     mustHaveHeadings: ['## Preamble', '## When to invoke'],
     // v1.2.0 activation lift: shared first-run-guidance preamble section.
-    maxSizeRatio: 1.07,
+        // Fork port wave 2 (D1): the evidence-before-claimed-limitations preamble
+    // directive adds ~0.45KB to every tier-2+ skill. Measured values noted.
+    maxSizeRatio: 1.09, // D1 measured
     minBytes: 70_000,
   },
 ];