ci(image): keep Claude Code 2.1.251; test(ceo-mode-routing): keep HOLD's own deferrals in scope before assessing its rigor decision

2.1.284 enables per-turn effort for claude-fable-5-1: in gate census
36626737820, 66 of 84 sessions ran longer than on 2.1.251 (+20% session time,
+32% thinking tokens) and 11 cases timed out on unchanged budgets.

HOLD SCOPE's 0G step asks its own defer/keep menu; the actor answered it
Defer and the assessment then judged that scope question as the rigor
decision. The actor now answers that menu Keep and assesses the next one.

test/helpers/ceo-mode-option.ts

@@ -976,3 +976,15 @@ export function nextCeoPostureContinuation(
   } else postureContinuations.set(seenQuestions, { modeId });
   return 'question';
 }
+
+/** HOLD SCOPE's own "Deferring current scope" menu: one question, exactly a
+ * Defer-to-TODOS option and a Keep-in-scope option. Returns the Keep index. */
+export function holdDeferKeepIndex(call: NativePlanQuestionCall | undefined): number | null {
+  if (call?.questions.length !== 1) return null;
+  const q = call.questions[0]!;
+  if (q.multiSelect || q.options.length !== 2) return null;
+  const labels = q.options.map(option => option.label.trim().replace(/^[A-Z][).:]\s+/, '').replace(/\s*\(recommended\)\s*$/i, ''));
+  const defer = labels.findIndex(label => /^Defer\b[^\n]*\bTODOS(?:\.md)?$/i.test(label));
+  const keep = labels.findIndex(label => /^Keep\b[^\n]*\bin scope$/i.test(label));
+  return defer >= 0 && keep >= 0 && defer !== keep ? keep + 1 : null;
+}