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remove-ai-watermarks/scripts/synthid_ensemble_detector.py
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Victor Kuznetsov 07b07634cf Merge the docs/arxiv-paper-review research line into main (#95)
* Add rigorous SynthID research and evaluation harness

* Record SynthID cross-epoch validation results

* Reset SynthID detector hypotheses to paired training

* Add paired wavelet and spectral SynthID probes

* Record closed-corpus SynthID detector ablations

* Add registered SynthID phase probing

* Add periodic SynthID tile probing

* Add calibrated SynthID pixel detector

* Harden scale-registered SynthID detection

* Record SynthID phase and channel rescue findings

* Add production SynthID routing and OpenAI verification

* Reframe periodic pixel route as pipeline lattice; confirm and harden detection

The frozen periodic experts read an origin-anchored generation-pipeline lattice destroyed by a crop off the tile grid, not the crop-robust SynthID mark. Route the pixel result as an experimental pipeline_lattice signal kept out of the watermark inventory, and carry the crop sensitivity in every verdict envelope.

Add split-patch phase/amplitude/codeword confirmation for registered-v3, affine-lattice and cyclostationary research probes, and timeout/retry/error-taxonomy hardening for the official OpenAI verification path.

* Record pipeline-lattice reframing and registered-v3 phase lock

Document that the pixel route detects an origin-anchored lattice rather than the watermark, and record the registered-v3 two-pixel phase-lock measurement: a 2px diagonal crop killed all 36 tested detections (28 foreign-generator, 8 Google) with recovery only at offsets that are multiples of four. Update README, CLI, Python API, supported-signals, known-limitations, module-internals, the SynthID reference, and the detector research plan.

* Split SynthID campaign docs by detector, classifiers, and removal

Keep Model 1 as a research AI-versus-camera result outside the library.
Retire the mixed oracle-ladders page to a routing hub and mark the plan
file as a chronological archive.

* Keep 2026-08-22 SynthID campaign results in research docs only

Drop Bayer, Model 1, and lattice re-check numbers from user guides and
module internals. The library surface is unchanged.

* Unplug lattice detector from package, expand research docs

* Remove lattice detector sources from the public package

* Document SynthID GitHub sweep findings

* Document general AI classifier sweep

* Document modern-negative taxonomy audit and classifier doc split

Split general AI-classifier research into ai-generated-image-classifiers.md
and record the modern-negative campaign: Unsplash/Openverse date-clean cells,
contamination controls, quarter-hard paired result, closed linear veto and
taxonomy-continuation arms.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known uv-secure lightning advisory with no upstream fix (same triage as main); core checks separately green (ruff, format, pyright, 1564 tests); 2) /simplify - docs-only single pass, no findings; 3) docs sync - split references updated everywhere, none stale; 4) CLAUDE.md - routing line already updated, compliant

* Record wild-AI audit, Meta provider class, and stock-negative expansion

The wild vendor-flagged AI cell (300 stratified rows) puts Model 1 recall at
69.7% on unknown-renderer stock AI; the stock-negative harvest triples the
modern fashion/product cells and confirms the combined-pool veto control;
the Meta muse-image corpus doubles to 132 rows with its margin sweep; a
per-channel cv2 reference fixes the latent fold test under cv2 4.10.0.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known uv-secure lightning advisory with no upstream fix; core checks separately green (ruff, format, pyright, 1665 tests); 2) /simplify - docs-only single pass, no findings; 3) docs sync - new run references point at the gitignored research store, none stale; 4) CLAUDE.md - compact, no changes needed

* Close representation-change campaign: both candidates falsified

Pre-registered gates (AI-test >=1772, fresh OI <=50, Kodak 0, FLUX >=288,
EvalGEN >=95) rejected DINOv2-L ridge head (1427/1847, 162/3000, 1/24, 29/300,
5/100) and the paired-reconstruction FFT tower (14/1847, 12/3000, 0/24, 0/300,
0/100; contract learned at 0.949 pairwise separation but no transfer to
production generators). Campaign verdict: general classifier beyond local
scale as pursued; product stays on documented remainder.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known uv-secure lightning advisory with no upstream fix; core checks green minutes ago (ruff, format, pyright, 1665 tests); 2) /simplify - docs-only single pass, no findings; 3) docs sync - verdict mirrored in data/research/REPRESENTATION-CAMPAIGN.md, no stale refs; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Record full failure map, H2 router falsification, and H3 process detector closure

20 measured negative domains with batch-2 (memes, whiteboards, tickets, book
pages). H2 domain router falsified: 97.9% of AI-test looks structured, every
family 94-100%. H3 process detector on 369 contrastive pairs from three
generators (OpenAI gpt-image-1-mini, Meta muse-image-1.0, Gemini flash-image)
achieves 0.909 pairwise AUC on training pairs but transfers at AUC 0.55-0.60
to production AI; human receipts score higher than any AI family. The
generator-specific spectral trace does not generalize across three generators,
closing the process-trace family in its current form.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (ruff, format, pyright, 1665 tests); 2) /simplify - docs + research scripts, single pass, no findings; 3) docs sync - all artifacts in data/research/, no stale refs; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Record H4-H6 research hypotheses: MLP probe, spectral invariant, TTA voting

H4 (MLP on frozen CLIP): 98.6% AI-test recall but 15.8% photo FPR — same
trade-off curve as quarter-hard. H5 (spectral invariant from CVPR 2025):
2.4% recall, the 1/f^alpha profile does not discriminate current generators.
H6 (TTA voting): fixes museum FP but not documents/UI/fashion, loses 9% recall.
All three falsified against frozen gates; ten total closed hypotheses now
document the CLIP-L representation limit from every angle.

Also records the provider cascade across all 20 domains (69.8% stray on
documents mirrors the detector failure map) and the full Y-phase campaign
PSNR data awaiting oracle rate-limit reset.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (ruff, format, pyright, 1665 tests); 2) /simplify - docs-only single pass, no findings; 3) docs sync - all artifacts in data/research/, no stale refs; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Fix Y-phase frequency convention, record H4-H6 and campaign results

The initial Y-phase campaign targeted FFT bins 16-32 instead of spatial
periods 16-32 px (1/32 to 1/16 cycles/px). After the fix, the full-octave
Y-phase scramble reproduces the known kill (not_detected at 20.5 dB on s1
at native 1122x1402). Partial sub-bands are visually invisible (42.5 dB)
but stay detected: the mark is distributed across the full octave, not
concentrated. Point intervention is not viable within this frequency band.

H4 MLP probe: 98.6% recall, 15.8% FPR (same trade-off wall).
H5 spectral invariant: 2.4% recall (1/f^alpha does not discriminate).
H6 TTA voting: fixes museum FP but not documents/UI/fashion.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (1665 tests, verified minutes ago); 2) /simplify - docs-only; 3) docs sync - all artifacts synced; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Add TC260 fifth class and per-class margin calibration to provider cascade

Five-head cascade (openai/google/tc260/meta/no_ai): openai 68.8%, google
76.6%, tc260 63.8%, meta 71.8% mean recall at uniform margin 0.50.
Per-class margins calibrated against 1.67% photo budget: openai 0.31,
google 0.29, tc260 0.39, meta 0.55. TC260 test recall 71.4% at calibrated
margins on 196 held-out images. Chinese-AIGC is a viable pixel class.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (verified within the hour); 2) /simplify - research script, single pass; 3) docs sync - artifacts in data/research/; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Record universal detector v3-v8: diverse training shifts the curve

Fresh MLP on frozen CLIP embeddings with 49 negative domains (12,258 images)
and 5,043 AI positives achieves 93.0% AI-test recall with 39/49 domains at
zero false positives. Digital art FP dropped from 99.3% (Model 1) to 24.8%,
fashion from 62-71% to 12%, UI from 99.3% to 12%. Photo FPR 0.7%. The
improvement comes from training data diversity on frozen embeddings, not
representation change (v5 fine-tune proved this by undoing the gains).
Also adds .local-eval to ruff exclude so the gate covers only tracked files.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (ruff, format, pyright, 1731 tests); 2) /simplify - docs + research; 3) docs sync - all artifacts in data/research/; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Add three-tier ensemble detector: DEFINITELY/POSSIBLY/LIKELY_HUMAN

Combines Model 1 and v8 into calibrated confidence tiers. DEFINITELY_AI
(both models agree) achieves 79.6% recall at 0.50% photo FPR with 46/49
domains at zero FP. The union reaches 93.3% recall at 1.80% photo FPR
with Kodak 0/24. First detector working across ALL content types with
per-tier calibrated error rates.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (ruff, format, pyright, 1731 tests); 2) /simplify - docs + ensemble; 3) docs sync - artifacts in data/research/; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Add provider v2: diversity training eliminates document leakage

Same diversity-training insight applied to the provider cascade. Adding
3,769 structured negative features to training drops document/receipt
leakage from 69.8% to 5.1%, UI from 10% to 4.3%, fashion from 5-15% to
0-3%. AI recall improves: OpenAI 84% (was 75%), Google 88.8% (was 79%).
Photo leakage 1.4%. Worst regression: memes 47.9% (was 27%).

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (ruff, format, pyright, 1731 tests); 2) /simplify - provider v2; 3) docs sync - artifacts in data/research/; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Add universal v11: full taxonomy, 136 domains, 124 at zero FP

Master data plan mapped 148 visual domains. Massive collection (3,343
images, 73 domains from Openverse) plus gap-filler (724 images from
Safebooru anime/manga) expanded training to 19,768 images across 136
negative domains. Universal v11 (MLP-512 + Model 1 ensemble):
DEFINITELY 90.3% recall at 0.50% photo FPR, ANY 95.6% recall,
124/134 domains at exactly 0% FP, worst FP 13.8% (digital art).

New domains opened: anime, manga, chibi, mecha, vintage photos,
banknotes, newspapers, magazines, movie posters, antique maps,
watercolor/oil originals, patterns, cosmetics, real estate, 3D
renders, and 60+ more.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (ruff, format, pyright, 1731 tests); 2) /simplify - docs + research; 3) docs sync - artifacts in data/research/; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Confirm representation limit: v12 fine-tune destroys structured FP despite 6x data

Fine-tuning CLIP tower on 19,518 images achieves 95.1% standalone recall
but returns to 100% FP on art/UI and 14/59 zero-FP domains (vs 124/134
for frozen v11). This is a representation property, not a data issue.
Frozen CLIP + MLP (v11) is the only working architecture. Also records
provider v3 trained on all negative domains.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (ruff, format, pyright, 1731 tests); 2) /simplify - docs + research; 3) docs sync - artifacts in data/research/; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Document v13 plateau: 128/136 zero FP, frozen-CLIP ceiling confirmed

v13 with top-plan expansion (1,169 new images) improves domain coverage
to 128/136 at zero FP and reduces fashion FP to 5.3%, but DEFINITELY
recall plateaus at 89.6% and art FP at 15.9%. The frozen CLIP + MLP
architecture has reached its ceiling.

pre-commit: 1) maintain.sh - exit 1, known lightning advisory; core green (verified minutes ago, 1731 tests); 2) /simplify - docs-only; 3) docs sync - v13 recorded; 4) CLAUDE.md - no changes

* Document the 2026-08-31 photo-classifier freeze.

Record the AI-versus-camera contract, Meta v3 hold-out, Flickr UI
replacement, and that receipts stay out of the supported domain.

* Scrub Spaces catalog details from classifier research docs

* Record receipt layout-gate probe for the universal detector
2026-09-01 11:37:32 -07:00

189 lines
6.9 KiB
Python

"""Run a positive-only exact-geometry SynthID research detector.
The detector requires independently frozen RGB and HSV phase models. It emits
``positive`` only when both branches and both support gates pass; every other
case is ``abstain``. It never claims that SynthID is absent.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import logging
from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass
from pathlib import Path
import click
from PIL import Image
from synthid_color_space_probe import ColorPhaseModel, ColorPhaseScore, load_model, score_image
from synthid_research_manifest import artifact_sha256
log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class EnsembleConfig:
"""Frozen paths, hashes, geometry, and positive thresholds."""
width: int
height: int
rgb_model_path: Path
rgb_model_sha256: str
rgb_evidence_threshold: float
rgb_active_threshold: float
hsv_model_path: Path
hsv_model_sha256: str
hsv_sv_evidence_threshold: float
hsv_active_threshold: float
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class EnsembleVerdict:
"""Positive-only verdict with the evidence needed to audit it."""
path: str
verdict: str
reason: str
rgb_evidence: float | None
rgb_active_support: float | None
hsv_sv_evidence: float | None
hsv_active_support: float | None
def load_config(path: Path) -> EnsembleConfig:
"""Load a frozen epoch manifest and verify both model artifacts."""
payload = json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
if payload.get("verdict_scope") != "positive-only exact-geometry research detector":
raise ValueError("config is not a positive-only exact-geometry detector")
rgb = payload["rgb_model"]
hsv = payload["hsv_model"]
geometry = payload["geometry"]
config = EnsembleConfig(
width=int(geometry["width"]),
height=int(geometry["height"]),
rgb_model_path=Path(rgb["path"]),
rgb_model_sha256=str(rgb["sha256"]),
rgb_evidence_threshold=float(rgb["evidence_threshold"]),
rgb_active_threshold=float(rgb["active_support_threshold"]),
hsv_model_path=Path(hsv["path"]),
hsv_model_sha256=str(hsv["sha256"]),
hsv_sv_evidence_threshold=float(hsv["sv_evidence_threshold"]),
hsv_active_threshold=float(hsv["active_support_threshold"]),
)
if config.width < 64 or config.height < 64:
raise ValueError("invalid detector geometry")
for model_path, expected_hash in (
(config.rgb_model_path, config.rgb_model_sha256),
(config.hsv_model_path, config.hsv_model_sha256),
):
if not model_path.is_file():
raise ValueError(f"model artifact does not exist: {model_path}")
if artifact_sha256(model_path) != expected_hash:
raise ValueError(f"model artifact hash mismatch: {model_path}")
return config
def load_models(config: EnsembleConfig) -> tuple[ColorPhaseModel, ColorPhaseModel]:
"""Load and cross-check the RGB and HSV models in CONFIG."""
rgb_model = load_model(config.rgb_model_path)
hsv_model = load_model(config.hsv_model_path)
if rgb_model.color_space != "rgb" or hsv_model.color_space != "hsv":
raise ValueError("detector requires one RGB model and one HSV model")
expected_geometry = (config.height, config.width)
if (rgb_model.height, rgb_model.width) != expected_geometry:
raise ValueError("RGB model geometry does not match config")
if (hsv_model.height, hsv_model.width) != expected_geometry:
raise ValueError("HSV model geometry does not match config")
return rgb_model, hsv_model
def classify_scores(
path: Path,
rgb_score: ColorPhaseScore,
hsv_score: ColorPhaseScore,
config: EnsembleConfig,
) -> EnsembleVerdict:
"""Apply CONFIG's positive-only rule to precomputed branch scores."""
hsv_sv_evidence = float(sum(hsv_score.channel_evidence[1:]))
rgb_support = rgb_score.active_weight_fraction >= config.rgb_active_threshold
hsv_support = hsv_score.active_weight_fraction >= config.hsv_active_threshold
rgb_pass = rgb_score.evidence_score >= config.rgb_evidence_threshold
hsv_pass = hsv_sv_evidence >= config.hsv_sv_evidence_threshold
if rgb_support and hsv_support and rgb_pass and hsv_pass:
verdict = "positive"
reason = "ensemble_pass"
elif not rgb_support or not hsv_support:
verdict = "abstain"
reason = "insufficient_support"
elif rgb_pass != hsv_pass:
verdict = "abstain"
reason = "branch_disagreement"
else:
verdict = "abstain"
reason = "below_positive_threshold"
return EnsembleVerdict(
path=str(path),
verdict=verdict,
reason=reason,
rgb_evidence=rgb_score.evidence_score,
rgb_active_support=rgb_score.active_weight_fraction,
hsv_sv_evidence=hsv_sv_evidence,
hsv_active_support=hsv_score.active_weight_fraction,
)
def detect_image(
path: Path,
config: EnsembleConfig,
rgb_model: ColorPhaseModel,
hsv_model: ColorPhaseModel,
) -> EnsembleVerdict:
"""Evaluate PATH or abstain when its geometry is unsupported."""
with Image.open(path) as image:
if image.size != (config.width, config.height):
return EnsembleVerdict(
path=str(path),
verdict="abstain",
reason="unsupported_geometry",
rgb_evidence=None,
rgb_active_support=None,
hsv_sv_evidence=None,
hsv_active_support=None,
)
return classify_scores(
path,
score_image(path, rgb_model),
score_image(path, hsv_model),
config,
)
@click.command()
@click.argument("config_path", type=click.Path(exists=True, dir_okay=False, path_type=Path))
@click.argument("images", nargs=-1, required=True, type=click.Path(exists=True, dir_okay=False, path_type=Path))
@click.option("--report-out", type=click.Path(dir_okay=False, path_type=Path), required=True)
def main(config_path: Path, images: tuple[Path, ...], report_out: Path) -> None:
"""Score IMAGES with the frozen positive-only detector CONFIG_PATH."""
logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(message)s")
config = load_config(config_path)
rgb_model, hsv_model = load_models(config)
verdicts = [detect_image(image, config, rgb_model, hsv_model) for image in images]
report_out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
report_out.write_text(
json.dumps(
{
"config": str(config_path),
"positive_count": sum(verdict.verdict == "positive" for verdict in verdicts),
"abstain_count": sum(verdict.verdict == "abstain" for verdict in verdicts),
"verdicts": [asdict(verdict) for verdict in verdicts],
},
indent=2,
)
+ "\n",
encoding="utf-8",
)
log.info("Wrote %d positive-only detector verdicts: %s", len(verdicts), report_out)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()