Add MKT opt-in on threat intercept, jittered market fetches, and Sentinel multi-scene dossier.

Operators enable Polymarket/Kalshi correlation from Global Threat Intercept with a consent dialog; polls use a jittered schedule separate from the slow tier. Right-click Sentinel imagery returns up to three signed scenes again.

Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>

backend/.env.example

@@ -62,7 +62,16 @@ AIS_API_KEY=              # https://aisstream.io/ — free tier WebSocket key
 # FIMI_ENABLED=false
 #
 # Polymarket + Kalshi — US political/election prediction markets.
+# Default off; enable from Global Threat Intercept (MKT toggle) or set true here.
 # PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED=false
+# When enabled, polls use a jittered schedule (not the fixed 5-minute slow tier):
+# PREDICTION_MARKETS_INTERVAL_MINUTES=7
+# PREDICTION_MARKETS_SCHEDULER_JITTER_S=240
+# PREDICTION_MARKETS_INITIAL_DELAY_MAX_S=180
+# PREDICTION_MARKETS_PRE_FETCH_JITTER_S=90
+# PREDICTION_MARKETS_PROVIDER_GAP_JITTER_S=45
+# MESH_POLYMARKET_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S=0.08
+# MESH_KALSHI_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S=0.2
 #
 # Finnhub fallback / yfinance — financial market data.
 # Set FINNHUB_API_KEY to enable Finnhub, or set FINANCIAL_ENABLED=true to allow

backend/routers/data.py

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 import asyncio
 import logging
 import math
+import os
 import threading
 from typing import Any
 from fastapi import APIRouter, Request, Response, Query, Depends
@@ -34,6 +35,10 @@ class LiveUamapOptInUpdate(BaseModel):
     opted_in: bool
 
 
+class PredictionMarketsOptInUpdate(BaseModel):
+    opted_in: bool
+
+
 _LAST_VIEWPORT_UPDATE: tuple | None = None
 _LAST_VIEWPORT_UPDATE_TS = 0.0
 _VIEWPORT_UPDATE_LOCK = threading.Lock()
@@ -422,6 +427,63 @@ def _run_liveuamap_refresh() -> None:
         logger.warning("LiveUAMap refresh after opt-in failed: %s", e)
 
 
+@router.get("/api/prediction-markets/status", dependencies=[Depends(require_local_operator)])
+async def api_prediction_markets_status():
+    """Whether Polymarket/Kalshi fetches and news market correlation are enabled."""
+    from services.prediction_markets_settings import prediction_markets_status
+
+    return prediction_markets_status()
+
+
+@router.post("/api/prediction-markets/opt-in", dependencies=[Depends(require_local_operator)])
+@limiter.limit("10/minute")
+async def api_prediction_markets_opt_in(body: PredictionMarketsOptInUpdate, request: Request):
+    """Enable or disable prediction market fetches + intercept story correlation."""
+    from services.config import get_settings
+    from services.prediction_markets_settings import (
+        prediction_markets_status,
+        set_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in,
+    )
+    from routers.ai_intel import _write_env_value
+
+    set_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in(body.opted_in)
+    _write_env_value("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED", "true" if body.opted_in else "false")
+    os.environ["PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED"] = "true" if body.opted_in else "false"
+    get_settings.cache_clear()
+
+    if body.opted_in:
+        threading.Thread(target=_run_prediction_markets_refresh, daemon=True).start()
+    else:
+        threading.Thread(target=_run_prediction_markets_disable, daemon=True).start()
+
+    return prediction_markets_status()
+
+
+def _run_prediction_markets_refresh() -> None:
+    try:
+        from services.fetchers.prediction_markets import fetch_prediction_markets
+        from services.fetchers.news import fetch_news
+
+        fetch_prediction_markets()
+        fetch_news()
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.warning("Prediction markets refresh after opt-in failed: %s", e)
+
+
+def _run_prediction_markets_disable() -> None:
+    try:
+        from services.fetchers._store import _data_lock, _mark_fresh, latest_data
+        from services.fetchers.news import fetch_news
+
+        with _data_lock:
+            latest_data["prediction_markets"] = []
+            latest_data["trending_markets"] = []
+        _mark_fresh("prediction_markets")
+        fetch_news()
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.warning("Prediction markets disable cleanup failed: %s", e)
+
+
 @router.post("/api/layers", dependencies=[Depends(require_local_operator)])
 @limiter.limit("30/minute")
 async def update_layers(update: LayerUpdate, request: Request):

backend/services/data_fetcher.py

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ import concurrent.futures
 import json
 import math
 import os
+import random
 import threading
 import time
 from datetime import datetime, timedelta
@@ -405,7 +406,6 @@ def update_slow_data():
     logger.info("Slow-tier data update starting...")
     slow_funcs = [
         fetch_news,
-        fetch_prediction_markets,
         fetch_earthquakes,
         fetch_firms_fires,
         fetch_firms_country_fires,
@@ -747,6 +747,27 @@ def start_scheduler():
         misfire_grace_time=120,
     )
 
+    # Prediction markets — own jittered cadence (Polymarket/Kalshi clearnet egress).
+    # Kept off the fixed 5-minute slow tier so poll timing is less fingerprintable.
+    from services.fetchers.prediction_markets import fetch_prediction_markets
+
+    _pm_interval_m = max(5, int(os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_INTERVAL_MINUTES", "7")))
+    _pm_jitter_s = max(0, int(os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_SCHEDULER_JITTER_S", "240")))
+    _pm_initial_max_s = max(0, int(os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_INITIAL_DELAY_MAX_S", "180")))
+    _pm_first_run = datetime.utcnow() + timedelta(
+        seconds=random.randint(30, max(30, _pm_initial_max_s))
+    )
+    _scheduler.add_job(
+        lambda: _run_task_with_health(fetch_prediction_markets, "fetch_prediction_markets"),
+        "interval",
+        minutes=_pm_interval_m,
+        jitter=_pm_jitter_s,
+        next_run_time=_pm_first_run,
+        id="prediction_markets",
+        max_instances=1,
+        misfire_grace_time=300,
+    )
+
     # Weather alerts — every 5 minutes (time-critical, separate from slow tier)
     _scheduler.add_job(
         lambda: _run_task_with_health(fetch_weather_alerts, "fetch_weather_alerts"),

backend/services/fetchers/prediction_markets.py

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import json
 import logging
 import math
 import os
+import random
 import threading
 import time
 from urllib.parse import urlencode
@@ -21,23 +22,34 @@ _prev_probabilities: dict[str, float] = {}
 _market_cache = TTLCache(maxsize=1, ttl=300)
 _POLYMARKET_PAGE_DELAY_S = float(os.environ.get("MESH_POLYMARKET_PAGE_DELAY_S", "0.02"))
 _KALSHI_PAGE_DELAY_S = float(os.environ.get("MESH_KALSHI_PAGE_DELAY_S", "0.08"))
+_POLYMARKET_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S = float(os.environ.get("MESH_POLYMARKET_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S", "0.08"))
+_KALSHI_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S = float(os.environ.get("MESH_KALSHI_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S", "0.2"))
+# Random delay before each full Polymarket+Kalshi cycle (decorrelates from other slow-tier jobs).
+_PRE_FETCH_JITTER_S = float(os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_PRE_FETCH_JITTER_S", "90"))
+# Random pause between finishing Polymarket pagination and starting Kalshi.
+_PROVIDER_GAP_JITTER_S = float(os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_PROVIDER_GAP_JITTER_S", "45"))
 _provider_pace_lock = threading.Lock()
 _provider_last_request_at: dict[str, float] = {}
 
 
 def prediction_markets_fetch_enabled() -> bool:
-    """Return True only when the operator explicitly opts into Polymarket/Kalshi pulls."""
-    return str(os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED", "")).strip().lower() in {
-        "1",
-        "true",
-        "yes",
-        "on",
-    }
+    """Return True when UI opt-in or PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED enables pulls."""
+    from services.prediction_markets_settings import prediction_markets_fetch_enabled as _enabled
+
+    return _enabled()
 
 
 def _pace_provider(provider: str, min_interval_s: float) -> None:
     if min_interval_s <= 0:
         return
+    jitter_s = (
+        _POLYMARKET_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S
+        if provider == "polymarket"
+        else _KALSHI_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S
+        if provider == "kalshi"
+        else 0.0
+    )
+    min_interval_s += random.uniform(0.0, jitter_s) if jitter_s > 0 else 0.0
     with _provider_pace_lock:
         now = time.monotonic()
         wait_s = min_interval_s - (now - _provider_last_request_at.get(provider, 0.0))
@@ -47,6 +59,24 @@ def _pace_provider(provider: str, min_interval_s: float) -> None:
         _provider_last_request_at[provider] = now
 
 
+def _apply_pre_fetch_jitter() -> None:
+    if _PRE_FETCH_JITTER_S <= 0:
+        return
+    delay = random.uniform(0.0, _PRE_FETCH_JITTER_S)
+    if delay >= 1.0:
+        logger.debug("Prediction markets: pre-fetch jitter %.1fs", delay)
+    time.sleep(delay)
+
+
+def _apply_provider_gap_jitter() -> None:
+    if _PROVIDER_GAP_JITTER_S <= 0:
+        return
+    delay = random.uniform(0.0, _PROVIDER_GAP_JITTER_S)
+    if delay >= 1.0:
+        logger.debug("Prediction markets: provider gap jitter %.1fs", delay)
+    time.sleep(delay)
+
+
 def _finite_or_none(value):
     try:
         n = float(value)
@@ -750,7 +780,9 @@ def _merge_markets(poly_events: list[dict], kalshi_events: list[dict]) -> list[d
 @cached(_market_cache)
 def fetch_prediction_markets_raw() -> list[dict]:
     """Fetch and merge prediction markets from both sources. Cached 5 min."""
+    _apply_pre_fetch_jitter()
     poly = _fetch_polymarket_events()
+    _apply_provider_gap_jitter()
     kalshi = _fetch_kalshi_events()
     merged = _merge_markets(poly, kalshi)
     logger.info(

backend/services/prediction_markets_settings.py

@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
+"""Operator opt-in for Polymarket/Kalshi outbound fetches (Global Threat Intercept)."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import logging
+import os
+import threading
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+_OPT_IN_FILE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "data" / "prediction_markets_opt_in.json"
+_OPT_IN_LOCK = threading.Lock()
+
+
+def _env_flag(name: str) -> str:
+    return str(os.getenv(name, "")).strip().lower()
+
+
+def get_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in() -> bool:
+    if not _OPT_IN_FILE.exists():
+        return False
+    try:
+        payload = json.loads(_OPT_IN_FILE.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+        return bool(payload.get("opted_in"))
+    except (OSError, json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError) as exc:
+        logger.warning("Prediction markets opt-in file unreadable: %s", exc)
+        return False
+
+
+def set_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in(opted_in: bool) -> None:
+    _OPT_IN_FILE.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    with _OPT_IN_LOCK:
+        _OPT_IN_FILE.write_text(
+            json.dumps({"opted_in": bool(opted_in)}, indent=2),
+            encoding="utf-8",
+        )
+
+
+def prediction_markets_env_forced_on() -> bool:
+    return _env_flag("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED") in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"}
+
+
+def prediction_markets_env_forced_off() -> bool:
+    return _env_flag("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED") in {"0", "false", "no", "off"}
+
+
+def prediction_markets_fetch_enabled() -> bool:
+    """True when UI opt-in or env enables Polymarket/Kalshi pulls."""
+    if get_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in():
+        return True
+    return prediction_markets_env_forced_on()
+
+
+def prediction_markets_status() -> dict[str, Any]:
+    ui_opted_in = get_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in()
+    env_on = prediction_markets_env_forced_on()
+    env_off = prediction_markets_env_forced_off()
+    env_override = None
+    if env_on:
+        env_override = "on"
+    elif env_off:
+        env_override = "off"
+    return {
+        "enabled": prediction_markets_fetch_enabled(),
+        "ui_opted_in": ui_opted_in,
+        "env_override": env_override,
+        "jitter": {
+            "scheduler_interval_minutes": int(
+                os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_INTERVAL_MINUTES", "7")
+            ),
+            "scheduler_jitter_seconds": int(
+                os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_SCHEDULER_JITTER_S", "240")
+            ),
+            "pre_fetch_jitter_seconds": float(
+                os.environ.get("PREDICTION_MARKETS_PRE_FETCH_JITTER_S", "90")
+            ),
+        },
+    }

backend/services/sentinel_search.py

@@ -26,6 +26,46 @@ def _planetary_user_agent() -> str:
     return outbound_user_agent("sentinel2-planetary-computer")
 
 
+def _sign_planetary_href(href: str) -> str:
+    """Sign a Planetary Computer blob URL with a short-lived SAS token."""
+    if not href or "blob.core.windows.net" not in href:
+        return href
+    try:
+        account = href.split(".blob.core.windows.net")[0].split("//")[-1]
+        token_resp = requests.get(
+            f"https://planetarycomputer.microsoft.com/api/sas/v1/token/{account}",
+            timeout=5,
+            headers={"User-Agent": _planetary_user_agent()},
+        )
+        token_resp.raise_for_status()
+        token = token_resp.json().get("token", "")
+        if not token:
+            return href
+        sep = "&" if "?" in href else "?"
+        return f"{href}{sep}{token}"
+    except (requests.RequestException, ValueError, KeyError):
+        return href
+
+
+def _scene_from_stac_feature(item: dict) -> dict:
+    assets = item.get("assets", {}) or {}
+    rendered = assets.get("rendered_preview") or {}
+    thumbnail = assets.get("thumbnail") or {}
+    props = item.get("properties", {}) or {}
+    thumb_href = _sign_planetary_href(thumbnail.get("href") or rendered.get("href") or "")
+    full_href = _sign_planetary_href(rendered.get("href") or thumbnail.get("href") or "")
+    return {
+        "found": True,
+        "scene_id": item.get("id"),
+        "datetime": props.get("datetime"),
+        "cloud_cover": props.get("eo:cloud_cover"),
+        "thumbnail_url": thumb_href or None,
+        "fullres_url": full_href or None,
+        "bbox": list(item.get("bbox", [])) if item.get("bbox") else None,
+        "platform": props.get("platform", "Sentinel-2"),
+    }
+
+
 def _esri_imagery_fallback(lat: float, lng: float) -> dict:
     lat_span = 0.18
     lng_span = 0.24
@@ -53,14 +93,14 @@ def _esri_imagery_fallback(lat: float, lng: float) -> dict:
 
 
 def search_sentinel2_scene(lat: float, lng: float) -> dict:
-    """Search for the latest Sentinel-2 L2A scene covering a point."""
+    """Search for up to 3 recent Sentinel-2 L2A scenes covering a point."""
     cache_key = f"{round(lat, 2)}_{round(lng, 2)}"
     if cache_key in _sentinel_cache:
         return _sentinel_cache[cache_key]
 
     try:
         end = datetime.utcnow()
-        start = end - timedelta(days=30)
+        start = end - timedelta(days=60)
         search_payload = {
             "collections": ["sentinel-2-l2a"],
             "intersects": {"type": "Point", "coordinates": [lng, lat]},
@@ -83,26 +123,8 @@ def search_sentinel2_scene(lat: float, lng: float) -> dict:
             _sentinel_cache[cache_key] = result
             return result
 
-        item = features[0]
-        assets = item.get("assets", {}) or {}
-        rendered = assets.get("rendered_preview") or {}
-        thumbnail = assets.get("thumbnail") or {}
-
-        # Full-res image URL — what opens when user clicks
-        fullres_url = rendered.get("href") or thumbnail.get("href")
-        # Thumbnail URL — what shows in the popup card
-        thumb_url = thumbnail.get("href") or rendered.get("href")
-
-        result = {
-            "found": True,
-            "scene_id": item.get("id"),
-            "datetime": item.get("properties", {}).get("datetime"),
-            "cloud_cover": item.get("properties", {}).get("eo:cloud_cover"),
-            "thumbnail_url": thumb_url,
-            "fullres_url": fullres_url,
-            "bbox": list(item.get("bbox", [])) if item.get("bbox") else None,
-            "platform": item.get("properties", {}).get("platform", "Sentinel-2"),
-        }
+        scenes = [_scene_from_stac_feature(item) for item in features[:3]]
+        result = {**scenes[0], "scenes": scenes}
         _sentinel_cache[cache_key] = result
         return result
 

backend/tests/test_prediction_markets_jitter.py

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+"""Prediction market fetch timing uses jitter to reduce poll fingerprinting."""
+
+from unittest.mock import MagicMock, patch
+
+import pytest
+
+from services.fetchers import prediction_markets as pm
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(autouse=True)
+def clear_market_cache():
+    pm._market_cache.clear()
+    yield
+    pm._market_cache.clear()
+
+
+def test_pre_fetch_jitter_sleeps_when_configured(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_PRE_FETCH_JITTER_S", 10.0)
+    sleeps: list[float] = []
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm.time, "sleep", lambda s: sleeps.append(s))
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm.random, "uniform", lambda _a, _b: 4.5)
+
+    pm._apply_pre_fetch_jitter()
+
+    assert sleeps == [4.5]
+
+
+def test_fetch_raw_applies_provider_gap(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setenv("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED", "true")
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_apply_pre_fetch_jitter", lambda: None)
+    gap_calls: list[int] = []
+
+    def _track_gap():
+        gap_calls.append(1)
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_apply_provider_gap_jitter", _track_gap)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_fetch_polymarket_events", lambda: [])
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_fetch_kalshi_events", lambda: [])
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_merge_markets", lambda _p, _k: [])
+
+    pm.fetch_prediction_markets_raw()
+
+    assert gap_calls == [1]
+
+
+def test_pace_provider_adds_per_page_jitter(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_POLYMARKET_PAGE_DELAY_JITTER_S", 1.0)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm, "_provider_last_request_at", {"polymarket": pm.time.monotonic()})
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm.random, "uniform", lambda _a, _b: 0.5)
+    sleeps: list[float] = []
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm.time, "sleep", lambda s: sleeps.append(s))
+
+    pm._pace_provider("polymarket", 0.02)
+
+    assert sleeps == [pytest.approx(0.52)]

backend/tests/test_prediction_markets_opt_in.py

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+"""UI opt-in for prediction markets (Global Threat Intercept)."""
+
+from services import prediction_markets_settings as pm_settings
+from services.fetchers import prediction_markets
+
+
+def test_ui_opt_in_enables_fetch(monkeypatch, tmp_path):
+    opt_file = tmp_path / "prediction_markets_opt_in.json"
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm_settings, "_OPT_IN_FILE", opt_file)
+    monkeypatch.delenv("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED", raising=False)
+
+    assert pm_settings.prediction_markets_fetch_enabled() is False
+
+    pm_settings.set_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in(True)
+    assert pm_settings.prediction_markets_fetch_enabled() is True
+    assert prediction_markets.prediction_markets_fetch_enabled() is True
+
+
+def test_env_force_on_without_ui_file(monkeypatch, tmp_path):
+    opt_file = tmp_path / "prediction_markets_opt_in.json"
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm_settings, "_OPT_IN_FILE", opt_file)
+    monkeypatch.setenv("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED", "true")
+
+    assert pm_settings.prediction_markets_fetch_enabled() is True

backend/tests/test_sentinel_search_scenes.py

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+"""Right-click dossier returns up to 3 signed Sentinel-2 scenes."""
+
+from unittest.mock import MagicMock, patch
+
+import pytest
+
+from services import sentinel_search as ss
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(autouse=True)
+def clear_sentinel_cache():
+    ss._sentinel_cache.clear()
+    yield
+    ss._sentinel_cache.clear()
+
+
+def _stac_feature(scene_id: str, dt: str, cloud: float) -> dict:
+    href = f"https://sentinel2euwest.blob.core.windows.net/sentinel2-l2a/{scene_id}.tif"
+    return {
+        "id": scene_id,
+        "bbox": [0, 0, 1, 1],
+        "properties": {
+            "datetime": dt,
+            "eo:cloud_cover": cloud,
+            "platform": "Sentinel-2A",
+        },
+        "assets": {
+            "rendered_preview": {"href": href},
+            "thumbnail": {"href": href},
+        },
+    }
+
+
+@patch("services.sentinel_search.requests.get")
+@patch("services.sentinel_search.requests.post")
+def test_search_returns_three_scenes(mock_post, mock_get):
+    mock_post.return_value = MagicMock(
+        ok=True,
+        raise_for_status=MagicMock(),
+        json=lambda: {
+            "features": [
+                _stac_feature("s1", "2026-05-28T10:00:00Z", 5.0),
+                _stac_feature("s2", "2026-05-20T10:00:00Z", 12.0),
+                _stac_feature("s3", "2026-05-10T10:00:00Z", 18.0),
+            ],
+        },
+    )
+    mock_get.return_value = MagicMock(
+        ok=True,
+        raise_for_status=MagicMock(),
+        json=lambda: {"token": "sig=test"},
+    )
+
+    result = ss.search_sentinel2_scene(29.0, 51.0)
+
+    assert result["found"] is True
+    assert result["scene_id"] == "s1"
+    assert len(result["scenes"]) == 3
+    assert result["scenes"][1]["scene_id"] == "s2"
+    assert "sig=test" in (result["scenes"][0]["fullres_url"] or "")
+
+
+@patch("services.sentinel_search.requests.post")
+def test_search_esri_fallback_has_no_scenes(mock_post):
+    mock_post.return_value = MagicMock(
+        ok=True,
+        raise_for_status=MagicMock(),
+        json=lambda: {"features": []},
+    )
+
+    result = ss.search_sentinel2_scene(29.0, 51.0)
+
+    assert result["fallback"] is True
+    assert "scenes" not in result

backend/tests/test_third_party_fetchers_opt_in.py

@@ -45,8 +45,10 @@ def test_fimi_falsy_value_does_not_call_upstream(monkeypatch):
 
 def test_prediction_markets_disabled_by_default(monkeypatch):
     from services.fetchers import _store, prediction_markets
+    from services import prediction_markets_settings as pm_settings
 
     monkeypatch.delenv("PREDICTION_MARKETS_ENABLED", raising=False)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pm_settings, "get_prediction_markets_ui_opt_in", lambda: False)
     monkeypatch.setitem(_store.latest_data, "prediction_markets", [{"id": "old"}])
     monkeypatch.setattr(
         prediction_markets, "fetch_prediction_markets_raw", _explode

frontend/src/components/NewsFeed.tsx

@@ -2,7 +2,9 @@
 
 import { useState, useMemo } from 'react';
 import { motion, AnimatePresence } from 'framer-motion';
-import { AlertTriangle, Clock, Minus, Plus, ExternalLink, Brain, Loader2 } from 'lucide-react';
+import { AlertTriangle, Clock, Minus, Plus, ExternalLink, Brain, Loader2, TrendingUp } from 'lucide-react';
+import ConfirmDialog from '@/components/ui/ConfirmDialog';
+import { usePredictionMarketsOptIn } from '@/hooks/usePredictionMarketsOptIn';
 import React, { useEffect, useRef, useCallback } from 'react';
 import WikiImage from '@/components/WikiImage';
 import { fetchWikipediaSummary } from '@/lib/wikimediaClient';
@@ -332,6 +334,9 @@ function NewsFeedInner({ selectedEntity, regionDossier, regionDossierLoading, on
     const [aiSummaryOpen, setAiSummaryOpen] = useState(false);
     const [aiSummary, setAiSummary] = useState<any>(null);
     const [aiSummaryLoading, setAiSummaryLoading] = useState(false);
+    const [pmConsentOpen, setPmConsentOpen] = useState(false);
+    const { status: pmStatus, setOptIn: setPmOptIn } = usePredictionMarketsOptIn();
+    const marketsCorrelationEnabled = pmStatus?.enabled ?? false;
     const itemRefs = useRef<(HTMLDivElement | null)[]>([]);
 
     // Intentionally omitting map click triggers for expanding
@@ -1357,7 +1362,7 @@ function NewsFeedInner({ selectedEntity, regionDossier, regionDossierLoading, on
                                 </span>
                             </div>
                         )}
-                        {item.prediction_odds && item.prediction_odds.consensus_pct != null && (
+                        {marketsCorrelationEnabled && item.prediction_odds && item.prediction_odds.consensus_pct != null && (
                             <div className="border-b border-[var(--border-primary)] pb-2">
                                 <span className="text-[var(--text-muted)] text-[10px] block mb-1.5">MARKET CORRELATION</span>
                                 <div className="p-2 bg-purple-950/30 border border-purple-500/30 rounded-sm">
@@ -1430,7 +1435,37 @@ function NewsFeedInner({ selectedEntity, regionDossier, regionDossierLoading, on
     /* CCTV is now handled by the fullscreen OPTIC INTERCEPT modal in MaplibreViewer */
     if (selectedEntity?.type === 'cctv') return null;
 
+    const pmJitter = pmStatus?.jitter;
+    const pmConsentMessage =
+        'Enabling prediction markets lets this node contact Polymarket and Kalshi over clearnet from your server IP (not through the wormhole). ' +
+        'Matching headlines may show a purple MKT strip with consensus odds. ' +
+        (pmJitter
+            ? `Poll timing is jittered (~${pmJitter.scheduler_interval_minutes} min base + up to ${pmJitter.scheduler_jitter_seconds}s) to reduce obvious patterns. `
+            : 'Poll timing is jittered to reduce obvious patterns. ') +
+        'Wormhole/Tor still only covers private mesh traffic. Turn off anytime with MKT OFF.';
+
     return (
+        <>
+        <ConfirmDialog
+            open={pmConsentOpen}
+            title="Enable prediction market correlation?"
+            message={pmConsentMessage}
+            confirmLabel="Enable MKT"
+            cancelLabel="Cancel"
+            danger={false}
+            onCancel={() => setPmConsentOpen(false)}
+            onConfirm={() => {
+                void (async () => {
+                    try {
+                        await setPmOptIn(true);
+                    } catch (e) {
+                        console.warn('Prediction markets opt-in failed:', e);
+                    } finally {
+                        setPmConsentOpen(false);
+                    }
+                })();
+            }}
+        />
         <motion.div
             initial={{ y: 50, opacity: 0 }}
             animate={{ y: 0, opacity: 1 }}
@@ -1485,10 +1520,38 @@ function NewsFeedInner({ selectedEntity, regionDossier, regionDossierLoading, on
                             initial={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
                             animate={{ height: "auto", opacity: 1 }}
                             exit={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
-                            className="text-[10px] text-cyan-500/80 mt-1 flex items-center justify-between font-bold relative z-10"
+                            className="text-[10px] text-cyan-500/80 mt-1 flex items-center justify-between font-bold relative z-10 gap-2"
                         >
-                            <span className="px-1 border border-cyan-500/30">SYS.STATUS: MONITORING</span>
-                            <span className="flex items-center gap-1"><Clock size={10} /> {data?.last_updated ? formatTime(data.last_updated) : "SCANNING"}</span>
+                            <div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-w-0">
+                                <span className="px-1 border border-cyan-500/30 shrink-0">SYS.STATUS: MONITORING</span>
+                                <button
+                                    type="button"
+                                    onClick={(e) => {
+                                        e.stopPropagation();
+                                        if (marketsCorrelationEnabled) {
+                                            void setPmOptIn(false).catch((err) => {
+                                                console.warn('Prediction markets opt-out failed:', err);
+                                            });
+                                        } else {
+                                            setPmConsentOpen(true);
+                                        }
+                                    }}
+                                    className={`shrink-0 flex items-center gap-1 px-1.5 py-0.5 border rounded-sm transition-colors ${
+                                        marketsCorrelationEnabled
+                                            ? 'border-purple-500/50 bg-purple-950/40 text-purple-300'
+                                            : 'border-cyan-800/40 bg-black/40 text-cyan-700 hover:text-purple-300 hover:border-purple-600/40'
+                                    }`}
+                                    title={
+                                        marketsCorrelationEnabled
+                                            ? 'Prediction market correlation on intercept stories (clearnet Polymarket/Kalshi)'
+                                            : 'Enable prediction market correlation on intercept stories'
+                                    }
+                                >
+                                    <TrendingUp size={10} />
+                                    MKT {marketsCorrelationEnabled ? 'ON' : 'OFF'}
+                                </button>
+                            </div>
+                            <span className="flex items-center gap-1 shrink-0"><Clock size={10} /> {data?.last_updated ? formatTime(data.last_updated) : "SCANNING"}</span>
                         </motion.div>
                     )}
                 </AnimatePresence>
@@ -1841,7 +1904,7 @@ function NewsFeedInner({ selectedEntity, regionDossier, regionDossierLoading, on
                                             <span className="text-cyan-300 opacity-90">{item.machine_assessment}</span>
                                         </div>
                                     )}
-                                    {item.prediction_odds && item.prediction_odds.consensus_pct != null && (
+                                    {marketsCorrelationEnabled && item.prediction_odds && item.prediction_odds.consensus_pct != null && (
                                         <div className="mt-1 px-1.5 py-1 bg-purple-950/30 border border-purple-500/30 rounded-sm text-[11px] font-mono flex items-center gap-1.5">
                                             <span className="text-purple-400 font-bold">MKT</span>
                                             <span className="text-purple-300 truncate flex-1" title={item.prediction_odds.title}>{item.prediction_odds.title}</span>
@@ -1933,6 +1996,7 @@ function NewsFeedInner({ selectedEntity, regionDossier, regionDossierLoading, on
 
 
         </motion.div>
+        </>
     );
 }
 

frontend/src/hooks/usePredictionMarketsOptIn.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
+'use client';
+
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react';
+import { API_BASE } from '@/lib/api';
+
+export type PredictionMarketsStatus = {
+  enabled: boolean;
+  ui_opted_in: boolean;
+  env_override: 'on' | 'off' | null;
+  jitter?: {
+    scheduler_interval_minutes: number;
+    scheduler_jitter_seconds: number;
+    pre_fetch_jitter_seconds: number;
+  };
+};
+
+export function usePredictionMarketsOptIn(enabled = true) {
+  const [status, setStatus] = useState<PredictionMarketsStatus | null>(null);
+
+  const refreshStatus = useCallback(async () => {
+    try {
+      const res = await fetch(`${API_BASE}/api/prediction-markets/status`);
+      if (!res.ok) return;
+      const body = (await res.json()) as PredictionMarketsStatus;
+      setStatus(body);
+    } catch {
+      // Backend may still be starting.
+    }
+  }, []);
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (!enabled) return;
+    void refreshStatus();
+  }, [enabled, refreshStatus]);
+
+  const setOptIn = useCallback(
+    async (optedIn: boolean) => {
+      const res = await fetch(`${API_BASE}/api/prediction-markets/opt-in`, {
+        method: 'POST',
+        headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+        body: JSON.stringify({ opted_in: optedIn }),
+      });
+      if (!res.ok) {
+        throw new Error(`Prediction markets opt-in failed (${res.status})`);
+      }
+      const body = (await res.json()) as PredictionMarketsStatus;
+      setStatus(body);
+      return body;
+    },
+    [],
+  );
+
+  return { status, refreshStatus, setOptIn };
+}