feat(exercised-map): union-only refresh with a fail-closed contract, census refresh, MAP_GAP and the replay receipt (A2-1, A2-4)

bun run test:exercised-map refreshes from a census run or local artifacts and
writes nothing on unavailable (exit 3) or partial (exit 4) input. The paid report
prints non-blocking MAP_GAP lines; --replay pins 0 misses over the 47 recorded
gate reds.

Co-authored-by: capy-ai[bot] <230910855+capy-ai[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

.github/workflows/evals-periodic.yml

@@ -723,6 +723,34 @@ jobs:
           if-no-files-found: ignore
           retention-days: 90
 
+      # Exercised-path map (shadow, non-blocking; docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md#exercised-path-map):
+      # union this census's own recorded commands into the map, report MAP_GAP lines and
+      # cases that recorded no commands, and print the refresh command. Never fails the run.
+      - name: Refresh the exercised-path map from this census
+        if: always()
+        continue-on-error: true
+        run: |
+          mkdir -p /tmp/exercised-map
+          dirs=()
+          for dir in /tmp/gate-census-report /tmp/paid-report; do [ -d "$dir" ] && dirs+=(--from-dir "$dir"); done
+          status=0
+          bun --no-install run scripts/exercised-map.ts "${dirs[@]}" \
+            --run-id "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" --out /tmp/exercised-map/exercised-commands.json --report /tmp/exercised-map/report.md || status=$?
+          if [ "$status" -ne 0 ]; then
+            echo "exercised-path map refresh failed with exit $status (non-blocking; no map uploaded)" | tee -a "$GITHUB_STEP_SUMMARY"
+          fi
+          if [ -f /tmp/exercised-map/report.md ]; then cat /tmp/exercised-map/report.md >> "$GITHUB_STEP_SUMMARY"; fi
+
+      - name: Upload the refreshed exercised-path map
+        if: always()
+        continue-on-error: true
+        uses: actions/upload-artifact@cf430e030ddbb5b0abf93d22962f4752f3646cd9 # v7
+        with:
+          name: exercised-map-a${{ github.run_attempt }}
+          path: /tmp/exercised-map
+          if-no-files-found: ignore
+          retention-days: 90
+
       # Weekly pass-rate gate over the last 10 weekly runs (drift, rule cases
       # behaving like behavior, quarantine exit/expiry/cap). Fails closed when
       # history cannot be fetched.

package.json

@@ -50,6 +50,7 @@
     "eval:bg:gate": "bun run scripts/eval-bg.ts gate",
     "eval:bg:periodic": "bun run scripts/eval-bg.ts periodic",
     "test:health": "bun run scripts/test-health-report.ts",
+    "test:exercised-map": "bun run scripts/exercised-map.ts",
     "eval:list": "bun run scripts/eval-list.ts",
     "eval:compare": "bun run scripts/eval-compare.ts",
     "eval:summary": "bun run scripts/eval-summary.ts",

scripts/exercised-map.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,384 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bun
+/**
+ * test:exercised-map — maintain test/helpers/exercised-commands.json, the
+ * observed half of the exercised-path consumer map (scripts/pr-dependencies.ts
+ * exercisedConsumers; shadow mode, docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md#exercised-path-map).
+ *
+ * Refreshes are union-only: an observation adds commands, never removes one.
+ * A refresh whose input is unavailable or partial writes nothing, keeps the
+ * committed union and exits non-zero with a stable code naming what was
+ * missing: 2 usage, 3 input unavailable (missing directory, failed or HTTP 403
+ * download), 4 input incomplete (no shards, no trial outcomes, an executed case
+ * without a shard artifact, a missing or malformed exercised-commands.json).
+ * Removing a command is a reviewed edit of the JSON file.
+ *
+ * Usage:
+ *   bun run test:exercised-map --from-run <id> [--out <file>]
+ *       download that census run's exercised-map artifact and union it into the committed map
+ *   bun run test:exercised-map --from-dir <downloaded exercised-map artifact dir> [--out <file>]
+ *       the same from a locally downloaded artifact (the fallback when the download hits HTTP 403)
+ *   bun run test:exercised-map --from-dir <dir> [--from-dir <dir>...] --run-id <id> [--out <file>] [--report <file>]
+ *       read paid-slice / gate-census report directories (shards/<shard>/...: transcripts, junit.xml,
+ *       PTY terminal.visible.log, trial-outcomes.jsonl) and union their commands into the map
+ *   bun run test:exercised-map --check
+ *       validate the committed map
+ *   bun run test:exercised-map --replay [<fixture>]
+ *       replay recorded red PR runs (default test/fixtures/exercised-map-replay.json) through
+ *       today's selector and its shadow; a MISS is a failed gate case the shadow would not run
+ */
+import * as fs from 'node:fs';
+import * as os from 'node:os';
+import * as path from 'node:path';
+import { spawnSync } from 'node:child_process';
+import {
+  checkoutExercisedConsumers, EXERCISED_MAP_PATH, parseExercisedMap, type ExercisedCase, type ExercisedConsumers, type ExercisedMap,
+} from './pr-dependencies';
+import { caseOwnerFile, EXERCISED_MAP_ANCHOR, PR_FULL_GATE_FILES, PR_PROFILE_MAPS } from './test-pr-profile';
+import { CASE_TEST_NAMES } from './lib/paid-cases';
+import { computePaidCaseSelection } from './test-paid-shards';
+
+const ROOT = path.resolve(import.meta.dir, '..');
+export const EXERCISED_MAP_ARTIFACT = 'exercised-map';
+
+/** Commands one shard directory recorded: per Bun test name, and shard-level (no test name). */
+export interface ShardCommands { shard: string; executed: string[]; perTest: Record<string, string[]>; shardLevel: string[] }
+
+function walk(dir: string): string[] {
+  return fs.readdirSync(dir, { withFileTypes: true }).flatMap(entry => entry.isDirectory() ? walk(path.join(dir, entry.name)) : [path.join(dir, entry.name)]);
+}
+
+function toolCommands(node: unknown, out: string[]): void {
+  if (Array.isArray(node)) { for (const item of node) toolCommands(item, out); return; }
+  if (!node || typeof node !== 'object') return;
+  const record = node as Record<string, any>;
+  if (record.type === 'tool_use' && typeof record.input?.command === 'string') out.push(record.input.command);
+  for (const value of Object.values(record)) if (value && typeof value === 'object') toolCommands(value, out);
+}
+
+/** Every `shards/<shard>/` directory under `dir`, with the Bash commands its transcripts, JSONL logs and PTY screens recorded. */
+export function readShardCommands(dir: string): ShardCommands[] {
+  if (!fs.existsSync(dir)) return [];
+  const shardDirs = walk(dir).map(file => path.relative(dir, file).split(path.sep)).flatMap(parts => {
+    const at = parts.lastIndexOf('shards');
+    return at >= 0 && parts.length > at + 2 ? [path.join(dir, ...parts.slice(0, at + 2))] : [];
+  });
+  return [...new Set(shardDirs)].sort().map(shardDir => {
+    const record: ShardCommands = { shard: path.basename(shardDir), executed: [], perTest: {}, shardLevel: [] };
+    for (const file of walk(shardDir)) {
+      const base = path.basename(file);
+      try {
+        if (base === 'junit.xml') {
+          for (const match of fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8').matchAll(/<testcase\b([^>]*?)(\/>|>([\s\S]*?)<\/testcase>)/g)) {
+            const name = /\bname="([^"]*)"/.exec(match[1]!)?.[1];
+            if (name && !/<skipped/.test(match[3] ?? '')) record.executed.push(name.replace(/&quot;/g, '"').replace(/&amp;/g, '&'));
+          }
+        } else if (base.endsWith('.json')) {
+          const parsed = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8'));
+          if (Array.isArray(parsed?.tests) && parsed.tests.some((test: any) => test?.transcript)) {
+            for (const test of parsed.tests) { const out: string[] = []; toolCommands(test.transcript ?? [], out); if (out.length) (record.perTest[test.name] ??= []).push(...out); }
+          } else toolCommands(parsed, record.shardLevel);
+        } else if (base.endsWith('.jsonl')) {
+          for (const line of fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8').split('\n')) if (line.includes('tool_use')) { try { toolCommands(JSON.parse(line), record.shardLevel); } catch { /* partial line */ } }
+        } else if (base === 'terminal.visible.log') {
+          for (const match of fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8').matchAll(/Bash\(([^\r\n]{0,400})/g)) record.shardLevel.push(`PTY:${match[1]}`);
+        }
+      } catch { /* unreadable evidence file: its commands are simply not observed */ }
+    }
+    record.shardLevel = [...new Set(record.shardLevel)];
+    for (const name of Object.keys(record.perTest)) record.perTest[name] = [...new Set(record.perTest[name])];
+    return record;
+  });
+}
+
+const testNameCase = (name: string, ids: string[]): string | null =>
+  ids.includes(name) ? name : Object.keys(CASE_TEST_NAMES).find(id => CASE_TEST_NAMES[id] === name && ids.includes(id)) ?? ids.find(id => name.includes(id)) ?? null;
+
+/**
+ * Raw commands per case. A case shard (`<stem>--<id>`) is that case; a file
+ * shard's per-test commands go to the case its test name names, and its
+ * file-level commands to every case of the file that ran (by JUnit name, else
+ * all of them): conservative over-attribution, as in the measured prototype.
+ */
+export function attributeCommands(shards: ShardCommands[], maps = PR_PROFILE_MAPS): Map<string, string[]> {
+  const ids = Object.keys(maps.e2eTouchfiles);
+  const byFile = new Map<string, string[]>();
+  for (const id of ids) { const owner = caseOwnerFile(id, maps); if (owner) byFile.set(owner, [...byFile.get(owner) ?? [], id]); }
+  const out = new Map<string, string[]>();
+  const add = (id: string, commands: string[]) => out.set(id, [...out.get(id) ?? [], ...commands]);
+  for (const shard of shards) {
+    const [stem, caseKey] = shard.shard.split('--');
+    const caseId = caseKey?.replace(/\.t\d+$/, '');
+    const owned = byFile.get(`test/${stem}.test.ts`) ?? [];
+    const ran = owned.filter(id => shard.executed.some(name => testNameCase(name, [id]) === id));
+    const targets = caseId && ids.includes(caseId) ? [caseId] : ran.length ? ran : owned;
+    for (const id of targets) add(id, shard.shardLevel);
+    for (const [name, commands] of Object.entries(shard.perTest)) {
+      const id = testNameCase(name, targets) ?? testNameCase(name, ids);
+      for (const target of id ? [id] : targets) add(target, commands);
+    }
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/** Known trial cost per case summed over the trial-outcomes.jsonl files under `dir` (executed trials only). */
+export function readCaseCosts(dir: string): Map<string, number> {
+  const out = new Map<string, number>();
+  if (!fs.existsSync(dir)) return out;
+  for (const file of walk(dir).filter(file => path.basename(file) === 'trial-outcomes.jsonl')) {
+    for (const line of fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8').split('\n').filter(Boolean)) {
+      try {
+        const record = JSON.parse(line);
+        if (record.execution === 'executed' && record.cost_known !== false && typeof record.case === 'string') out.set(record.case, (out.get(record.case) ?? 0) + (Number(record.cost_usd) || 0));
+      } catch { /* malformed line */ }
+    }
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
+/** One run's observations as a map: the bins each attributed case invoked, and its known cost. */
+export function observeRun(commandsByCase: Map<string, string[]>, ex: Pick<ExercisedConsumers, 'binsInCommand'>, run: { runId: string; observedAt: string; costs?: Map<string, number> }): ExercisedMap {
+  const cases: Record<string, ExercisedCase> = {};
+  for (const [id, commands] of commandsByCase) {
+    cases[id] = { observations: 1, withCommands: commands.length ? 1 : 0, commands: [...new Set(commands.flatMap(command => ex.binsInCommand(command)))].sort() };
+  }
+  for (const [id, cost] of run.costs ?? []) {
+    cases[id] ??= { observations: 1, withCommands: 0, commands: [] };
+    Object.assign(cases[id], { costUsd: Math.round(cost * 10000) / 10000, costRuns: 1 });
+  }
+  return { schema: 1, generatedAt: run.observedAt, observedThrough: run.observedAt, sourceRuns: [run.runId], cases };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Union-only merge: commands are unioned, counts add for runs the base has
+ * not seen, costs average by run count, and nothing the base holds is ever
+ * removed (an absent or empty case in `fresh` changes nothing).
+ */
+export function mergeExercisedMap(base: ExercisedMap, fresh: ExercisedMap, generatedAt = new Date().toISOString()): ExercisedMap {
+  const counts = fresh.sourceRuns.some(run => !base.sourceRuns.includes(run));
+  const cases: Record<string, ExercisedCase> = structuredClone(base.cases);
+  for (const [id, entry] of Object.entries(fresh.cases)) {
+    const old = cases[id];
+    const merged: ExercisedCase = {
+      observations: (old?.observations ?? 0) + (counts ? entry.observations : 0),
+      withCommands: (old?.withCommands ?? 0) + (counts ? entry.withCommands : 0),
+      commands: [...new Set([...old?.commands ?? [], ...entry.commands])].sort(),
+    };
+    const oldRuns = old?.costRuns ?? 0, freshRuns = counts && entry.costUsd !== undefined ? entry.costRuns ?? 1 : 0;
+    if (freshRuns) Object.assign(merged, { costUsd: Math.round(((old?.costUsd ?? 0) * oldRuns + entry.costUsd! * freshRuns) / (oldRuns + freshRuns) * 10000) / 10000, costRuns: oldRuns + freshRuns });
+    else if (old?.costUsd !== undefined) Object.assign(merged, { costUsd: old.costUsd, costRuns: oldRuns });
+    cases[id] = merged;
+  }
+  return {
+    schema: 1, generatedAt,
+    observedThrough: [base.observedThrough, fresh.observedThrough].sort().at(-1)!,
+    sourceRuns: [...new Set([...base.sourceRuns, ...fresh.sourceRuns])].sort(),
+    cases: Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(cases).sort(([a], [b]) => a.localeCompare(b))),
+  };
+}
+
+export function formatExercisedMap(map: ExercisedMap): string {
+  return `${JSON.stringify(map, null, 2)}\n`;
+}
+
+/** `MAP_GAP <case> <command>`: a recorded command whose files all lie outside the case's static-plus-observed exercised closure. */
+export function mapGaps(commandsByCase: Map<string, string[]>, ex: ExercisedConsumers): Array<{ id: string; command: string }> {
+  const gaps: Array<{ id: string; command: string }> = [];
+  for (const [id, commands] of [...commandsByCase].sort(([a], [b]) => a.localeCompare(b))) {
+    const closure = ex.closure(id);
+    for (const command of [...new Set(commands.flatMap(raw => ex.binsInCommand(raw)))].sort()) {
+      const files = ex.commandFiles(command);
+      if (files.length && !files.some(file => closure.has(file))) gaps.push({ id, command });
+    }
+  }
+  return gaps;
+}
+
+/** Executed cases that recorded no command although their loaded skill's shell runs bins: blind to gap detection. */
+export function blindCases(commandsByCase: Map<string, string[]>, ex: ExercisedConsumers): string[] {
+  return [...commandsByCase].filter(([id, commands]) => commands.length === 0
+    && [...ex.closure(id)].some(([file, label]) => file.startsWith('bin/') && label.startsWith('skill bash via'))).map(([id]) => id).sort();
+}
+
+/** Stable exit codes of test:exercised-map (docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md#exercised-path-map). */
+export const REFRESH_EXIT = { usage: 2, unavailable: 3, incomplete: 4 } as const;
+
+/** A refresh that cannot be trusted: nothing is written and the committed union stays as it was. */
+export class RefreshError extends Error {
+  constructor(readonly exitCode: typeof REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable | typeof REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete, message: string) { super(message); }
+}
+
+/** One MAP_GAP line, saying who it is for and what follows from it. */
+export function formatMapGap(gap: { id: string; command: string }): string {
+  return `MAP_GAP ${gap.id} ${gap.command}: non-blocking for this PR; the next census refresh widens the map (${EXERCISED_MAP_ANCHOR})`;
+}
+
+function writeAtomically(file: string, text: string): void {
+  fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(path.resolve(file)), { recursive: true });
+  const temp = `${file}.${process.pid}.tmp`;
+  fs.writeFileSync(temp, text);
+  fs.renameSync(temp, file);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Census refresh from local report directories (paid-slice artifacts under
+ * shards/, plus trial-outcomes.jsonl). Every executed case must have shard
+ * evidence; a missing directory, no shards, no trial outcomes or an executed
+ * case without a shard throws before anything is written.
+ */
+export function refreshFromReportDirs(dirs: string[], runId: string, base: ExercisedMap, ex: ExercisedConsumers, observedAt = new Date().toISOString(), maps = PR_PROFILE_MAPS) {
+  const missing = dirs.filter(dir => !fs.existsSync(dir));
+  if (missing.length) throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable, `report director${missing.length > 1 ? 'ies' : 'y'} not found: ${missing.join(', ')}`);
+  const shards = dirs.flatMap(readShardCommands);
+  if (shards.length === 0) throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete, `no shards/<shard>/ directories under ${dirs.join(', ')}; download every paid-slice-* artifact of the run first`);
+  const outcomes = dirs.flatMap(dir => walk(dir).filter(file => path.basename(file) === 'trial-outcomes.jsonl'));
+  if (outcomes.length === 0) throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete, `no trial-outcomes.jsonl under ${dirs.join(', ')}, so the executed cases cannot be checked against the shard evidence`);
+  const commands = attributeCommands(shards, maps);
+  const executed = new Set(outcomes.flatMap(file => fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8').split('\n').flatMap(line => {
+    try { const record = JSON.parse(line); return record.execution === 'executed' && typeof record.case === 'string' ? [record.case as string] : []; } catch { return []; }
+  })));
+  const uncovered = [...executed].filter(id => Object.hasOwn(maps.e2eTouchfiles, id) && !commands.has(id)).sort();
+  if (uncovered.length) throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete, `${uncovered.length} executed case(s) have no shard artifact: ${uncovered.slice(0, 10).join(', ')}${uncovered.length > 10 ? ' ...' : ''}`);
+  const costs = new Map<string, number>();
+  for (const dir of dirs) for (const [id, cost] of readCaseCosts(dir)) costs.set(id, (costs.get(id) ?? 0) + cost);
+  const merged = mergeExercisedMap(base, observeRun(commands, ex, { runId, observedAt, costs }), observedAt);
+  return { merged, commands };
+}
+
+function census(dirs: string[], runId: string, out: string, reportPath: string | undefined): void {
+  const ex = checkoutExercisedConsumers(PR_PROFILE_MAPS, ROOT, PR_FULL_GATE_FILES);
+  const base = ex.map!;
+  const { merged, commands } = refreshFromReportDirs(dirs, runId, base, ex);
+  writeAtomically(out, formatExercisedMap(merged));
+  const added = Object.entries(merged.cases).flatMap(([id, entry]) => entry.commands.filter(command => !base.cases[id]?.commands.includes(command)).map(command => `${id} ${command}`));
+  const gaps = mapGaps(commands, ex);
+  const blind = blindCases(commands, ex);
+  const lines = [
+    '## Exercised-path map (shadow, non-blocking)', '',
+    `- ${commands.size} executed case(s), ${[...commands.values()].reduce((sum, list) => sum + list.length, 0)} recorded command(s); ${added.length} new observed edge(s).`,
+    `- Refresh: \`bun run test:exercised-map --from-run ${runId}\`, then open the change as an ordinary PR (shadow-only data: it selects no paid case).`,
+    `- MAP_GAP (a command outside its case's static-plus-observed closure): ${gaps.length}`,
+    ...gaps.map(gap => `  - ${formatMapGap(gap)}`),
+    `- Cases that recorded no commands although their skill runs bins (PTY capture is the activation prerequisite): ${blind.length ? blind.join(', ') : 'none'}`,
+    ...added.slice(0, 50).map(edge => `  - new: ${edge}`),
+    `- Docs: ${EXERCISED_MAP_ANCHOR}`,
+  ];
+  console.log(lines.join('\n'));
+  if (reportPath) fs.writeFileSync(reportPath, `${lines.join('\n')}\n`);
+}
+
+/** Union every exercised-commands.json of a downloaded exercised-map artifact into `base`; any missing or malformed file throws. */
+export function mergeArtifactDir(dir: string, base: ExercisedMap, generatedAt = new Date().toISOString()): ExercisedMap {
+  const files = fs.existsSync(dir) ? walk(dir).filter(file => path.basename(file) === 'exercised-commands.json') : [];
+  if (files.length === 0) throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete, `no exercised-commands.json in ${dir} (the census refresh step failed or its ${EXERCISED_MAP_ARTIFACT}-a<attempt> artifact is partial)`);
+  let map = base;
+  for (const file of files.sort()) {
+    let fresh: ExercisedMap;
+    try { fresh = parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8')); }
+    catch (error) { throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete, `${path.relative(dir, file)} is not a complete exercised map: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`); }
+    map = mergeExercisedMap(map, fresh, generatedAt);
+  }
+  return map;
+}
+
+export type ArtifactDownload = (runId: string, dir: string) => { status: number | null; stderr: string };
+
+const ghDownload: ArtifactDownload = (runId, dir) => {
+  const result = spawnSync('gh', ['run', 'download', runId, '--pattern', `${EXERCISED_MAP_ARTIFACT}-*`, '--dir', dir], { encoding: 'utf8', timeout: 120_000 });
+  return { status: result.status, stderr: result.stderr || result.error?.message || '' };
+};
+
+/** Download a census run's exercised-map artifact and union it into `target`; on any failure nothing is written. */
+export function refreshFromRun(runId: string, target: string, download: ArtifactDownload = ghDownload): ExercisedMap {
+  if (!/^\d+$/.test(runId)) throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable, `--from-run needs a numeric GitHub run id, got ${runId}`);
+  const dir = fs.mkdtempSync(path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'exercised-map-'));
+  try {
+    const result = download(runId, dir);
+    if (result.status !== 0) {
+      const reason = result.stderr.trim();
+      const hint = /\b403\b/.test(reason)
+        ? `HTTP 403 (the installation's artifact download limit); download the ${EXERCISED_MAP_ARTIFACT}-a<attempt> artifact from the run page and pass its directory with --from-dir`
+        : `check \`gh auth status\` and that run ${runId} uploaded an ${EXERCISED_MAP_ARTIFACT}-a<attempt> artifact`;
+      throw new RefreshError(REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable, `gh run download ${runId} failed: ${reason || `exit ${result.status}`}; ${hint}`);
+    }
+    const map = mergeArtifactDir(dir, parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(target, 'utf8')));
+    writeAtomically(target, formatExercisedMap(map));
+    return map;
+  } finally { fs.rmSync(dir, { recursive: true, force: true }); }
+}
+
+export const REPLAY_FIXTURE = 'test/fixtures/exercised-map-replay.json';
+
+export interface ReplayRun { runId: number; pr: number; packageVersionOnly: boolean; failedGateCases: string[]; changedFiles: string[] }
+
+/** One recorded red run under today's selection and its shadow: which failed gate cases each would run. */
+export interface ShadowReplayRow { runId: number; pr: number; mode: string; today: number; shadow: number; savingUsd: number; caughtToday: string[]; misses: string[]; retired: string[] }
+
+export function replayShadow(runs: readonly ReplayRun[]): ShadowReplayRow[] {
+  const gateIds = Object.keys(PR_PROFILE_MAPS.tiers).filter(id => PR_PROFILE_MAPS.tiers[id] === 'gate');
+  return runs.map(run => {
+    const result = computePaidCaseSelection({ profile: 'pr', env: {}, changedFiles: run.changedFiles, packageVersionOnly: run.packageVersionOnly });
+    const today = new Set(result.selection.e2e ?? gateIds);
+    const shadow = result.coverage?.shadow;
+    if (shadow?.error) throw new Error(`run ${run.runId}: shadow unavailable (${shadow.error})`);
+    const shadowSet = new Set(shadow?.e2e ?? today);
+    const live = run.failedGateCases.filter(id => PR_PROFILE_MAPS.tiers[id] === 'gate');
+    return { runId: run.runId, pr: run.pr, mode: result.coverage?.mode ?? 'full', today: today.size, shadow: shadowSet.size, savingUsd: shadow?.predictedSavingUsd ?? 0,
+      caughtToday: live.filter(id => today.has(id)), misses: live.filter(id => !shadowSet.has(id)), retired: run.failedGateCases.filter(id => !live.includes(id)) };
+  });
+}
+
+export function formatShadowReplay(rows: readonly ShadowReplayRow[]): string[] {
+  const pairs = (list: readonly ShadowReplayRow[]) => list.reduce((sum, row) => sum + new Set([...row.caughtToday, ...row.misses]).size, 0);
+  const misses = rows.flatMap(row => row.misses.map(id => `${row.runId} #${row.pr} ${id}`));
+  const modes = new Map<string, number>();
+  for (const row of rows) modes.set(row.mode, (modes.get(row.mode) ?? 0) + 1);
+  const mean = (pick: (row: ShadowReplayRow) => number) => rows.length ? (rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + pick(row), 0) / rows.length).toFixed(1) : 'n/a';
+  return [
+    `Exercised-path shadow replay over ${rows.length} recorded red PR run(s) on this checkout`,
+    `- failed gate (run, case) pairs: ${pairs(rows)}, ${pairs(rows.filter(row => row.mode !== 'full-fallback'))} of them in runs that do not fall back to the full gate (${rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.retired.length, 0)} more on cases no longer in the gate)`,
+    `- today's selection runs ${rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.caughtToday.length, 0)} of them; modes ${[...modes].map(([mode, n]) => `${mode} ${n}`).join(', ')}`,
+    `- mean gate cases: today ${mean(row => row.today)}, shadow ${mean(row => row.shadow)}; predicted shadow saving over these runs $${rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.savingUsd, 0).toFixed(2)}`,
+    `- MISSES (failed, not in the shadow selection): ${misses.length}`,
+    ...misses.map(miss => `  - ${miss}`),
+  ];
+}
+
+const USAGE = 'usage: bun run test:exercised-map --from-run <id> [--out <file>] | --from-dir <dir>... [--run-id <id>] [--out <file>] [--report <file>] | --check | --replay [<fixture>]';
+
+if (import.meta.main) {
+  const argv = process.argv.slice(2);
+  const values = (flag: string) => argv.flatMap((arg, index) => arg === flag && argv[index + 1] ? [argv[index + 1]!] : []);
+  const out = values('--out')[0] ?? path.join(ROOT, EXERCISED_MAP_PATH);
+  try {
+    if (argv.includes('--check')) {
+      const map = parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, EXERCISED_MAP_PATH), 'utf8'));
+      console.log(`${EXERCISED_MAP_PATH}: ${Object.keys(map.cases).length} cases, ${map.sourceRuns.length} source runs, observed through ${map.observedThrough}`);
+    } else if (argv.includes('--replay')) {
+      const fixture = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(path.resolve(ROOT, values('--replay')[0] ?? REPLAY_FIXTURE), 'utf8')) as { runs: ReplayRun[] };
+      const rows = replayShadow(fixture.runs);
+      console.log(formatShadowReplay(rows).join('\n'));
+      if (rows.some(row => row.misses.length)) process.exit(1);
+    } else if (values('--from-run').length) {
+      const runId = values('--from-run')[0]!;
+      const map = refreshFromRun(runId, out);
+      console.log(`union-merged run ${runId}'s ${EXERCISED_MAP_ARTIFACT} artifact into ${path.relative(ROOT, out)} (${Object.keys(map.cases).length} cases, observed through ${map.observedThrough}); review the diff and open it as a PR`);
+    } else if (values('--from-dir').length) {
+      const dirs = values('--from-dir');
+      if (dirs.length === 1 && fs.existsSync(dirs[0]!) && readShardCommands(dirs[0]!).length === 0 && walk(dirs[0]!).some(file => path.basename(file) === 'exercised-commands.json')) {
+        const map = mergeArtifactDir(dirs[0]!, parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(out, 'utf8')));
+        writeAtomically(out, formatExercisedMap(map));
+        console.log(`union-merged the ${EXERCISED_MAP_ARTIFACT} artifact in ${dirs[0]} into ${path.relative(ROOT, out)}; review the diff and open it as a PR`);
+      } else {
+        const runId = values('--run-id')[0];
+        if (!runId) { console.error(`test:exercised-map: --from-dir with report directories needs --run-id <id> (the run whose artifacts these are)\n${USAGE}`); process.exit(REFRESH_EXIT.usage); }
+        census(dirs, runId, out, values('--report')[0]);
+      }
+    } else {
+      console.error(USAGE);
+      process.exit(REFRESH_EXIT.usage);
+    }
+  } catch (error) {
+    console.error(`test:exercised-map: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}${error instanceof RefreshError ? '; nothing was written, the committed union is unchanged' : ''}`);
+    process.exit(error instanceof RefreshError ? error.exitCode : 1);
+  }
+}

scripts/lib/paid-report.ts

@@ -22,6 +22,9 @@ import { type ManifestEntry, PAID_TEST_DURATIONS_FILE, type PaidRunManifest, typ
 import { DEFAULT_JOBS, type PaidCaseSelection, type PaidTier, ROOT, type ShardTrialRecord } from './paid-types';
 import { collectPaidTestFiles, isAllSkippedPass, shardSlug, paidSelectionEnv } from './paid-select';
 import type { RunShardsOptions } from '../test-paid-shards';
+import { attributeCommands, formatMapGap, mapGaps, readShardCommands } from '../exercised-map';
+import { checkoutExercisedConsumers } from '../pr-dependencies';
+import { PR_FULL_GATE_FILES, PR_PROFILE_MAPS } from '../test-pr-profile';
 
 // ─── Local diagnosis: one case through the CI panel runner (A9) ────────────
 
@@ -482,6 +485,30 @@ export function infraOnly(problems: readonly string[]): boolean {
   return problems.length > 0 && problems.every(problem => INFRA_PROBLEMS.some(re => re.test(problem)));
 }
 
+/**
+ * Shadow gap detection (docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md#exercised-path-map): a
+ * command an executed case ran outside its static-plus-observed exercised
+ * closure prints a MAP_GAP line (formatMapGap: non-blocking for this PR, the
+ * next census refresh widens the map) and lands in map-gaps.txt. It is its own
+ * result: never a case verdict, a lane problem or a re-dispatch input.
+ */
+export function reportMapGaps(reportDir: string, executedCases: ReadonlySet<string>, rootDir = ROOT): string[] {
+  const out = path.join(reportDir, 'map-gaps.txt');
+  try {
+    const commands = new Map([...attributeCommands(readShardCommands(reportDir))].filter(([id, list]) => executedCases.has(id) && list.length > 0));
+    const lines = commands.size === 0 ? [] : mapGaps(commands, checkoutExercisedConsumers(PR_PROFILE_MAPS, rootDir, PR_FULL_GATE_FILES)).map(formatMapGap);
+    fs.writeFileSync(out, lines.length ? `${lines.join('\n')}\n` : '');
+    console.log(`[test:paid] exercised-path map (shadow, non-blocking): ${lines.length} MAP_GAP line(s) over ${commands.size} executed case(s) with recorded commands`);
+    for (const line of lines) console.log(`  ${line}`);
+    return lines;
+  } catch (error) {
+    const reason = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);
+    fs.writeFileSync(out, `MAP_GAP unavailable: ${reason}\n`);
+    console.log(`[test:paid] exercised-path map (shadow, non-blocking): MAP_GAP unavailable: ${reason}`);
+    return [];
+  }
+}
+
 /**
  * Report mode: reconcile slice artifacts against the manifest (fail-closed),
  * compute every panel verdict with panelVerdict(), write collector-outcomes
@@ -743,6 +770,7 @@ export function runPaidReport(reportDir: string, options: { writeDurations?: boo
       ...(t.exit_reason ? { exit_reason: t.exit_reason } : {}), ...(t.error ? { error: t.error } : {}) })) })),
   // evals.yml wraps these in a fixed fence for the PR comment.
   failures: failureLines.map(line => sanitizeFixedFenceLine(line)) }, null, 2) + '\n');
+  reportMapGaps(reportDir, new Set(executed.map(record => record.case)), rootDir);
   if (verdict.problems.length) {
     console.error(`[test:paid] report: ${verdict.problems.length} problem(s):`);
     for (const problem of verdict.problems) console.error(`  ✗ ${problem}`);

test/exercised-map.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,357 @@
+/**
+ * Exercised-path consumer map (W2-A2, shadow mode): edge classes on a
+ * synthetic tree, the five variant-c miss shapes as negative controls,
+ * union-only refreshes, the refresh contract on unavailable or partial input,
+ * shadow-only map data selecting nothing, shadow output that never changes the
+ * real selection, MAP_GAP detection, and parity with the
+ * measured prototype (docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md#exercised-path-map).
+ */
+import { describe, expect, test } from 'bun:test';
+import * as fs from 'node:fs';
+import * as os from 'node:os';
+import * as path from 'node:path';
+import { spawnSync } from 'node:child_process';
+import {
+  deriveDependencies, EXERCISED_MAP_PATH, exercisedConsumers, parseExercisedMap, type ExercisedMap,
+} from '../scripts/pr-dependencies';
+import {
+  formatPrCoverageSummary, PR_FULL_GATE_FILES, PR_PROFILE_MAPS, selectPrProfile,
+} from '../scripts/test-pr-profile';
+import {
+  attributeCommands, blindCases, formatExercisedMap, formatMapGap, formatShadowReplay, mapGaps, mergeExercisedMap, observeRun, readCaseCosts, readShardCommands,
+  REFRESH_EXIT, RefreshError, refreshFromReportDirs, refreshFromRun, REPLAY_FIXTURE, replayShadow, type ArtifactDownload, type ReplayRun,
+} from '../scripts/exercised-map';
+import { reportMapGaps } from '../scripts/lib/paid-report';
+import { computePaidCaseSelection } from '../scripts/test-paid-shards';
+import { prototypeConsumers } from './helpers/exercised-prototype';
+
+const ROOT = path.resolve(import.meta.dir, '..');
+
+function fixtureRepo(files: Record<string, string>): string {
+  const root = fs.mkdtempSync(path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'exercised-map-'));
+  for (const [file, text] of Object.entries(files)) {
+    fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(path.join(root, file)), { recursive: true });
+    fs.writeFileSync(path.join(root, file), text);
+  }
+  for (const args of [['init', '-q'], ['add', '-A']]) {
+    const result = spawnSync('git', args, { cwd: root, encoding: 'utf8', timeout: 10_000 });
+    if (result.status !== 0) throw new Error(`git ${args[0]} failed: ${result.stderr}`);
+  }
+  return root;
+}
+
+const map = (cases: ExercisedMap['cases'], sourceRuns = ['1'], observedThrough = '2026-10-01T00:00:00Z'): ExercisedMap =>
+  ({ schema: 1, generatedAt: observedThrough, observedThrough, sourceRuns, cases });
+
+const FENCE = '```';
+const skill = [
+  '# alpha', '', 'Prose naming gstack-prose and /gstack-slash is not run.', '', FENCE + 'bash',
+  'gstack-start --quiet',
+  'echo "see gstack-echoed for details"',
+  'echo "now $(gstack-subst --print)"',
+  '# gstack-commented',
+  'case "$x" in gstack-casepat) true ;; esac',
+  'VAR=gstack-bare',
+  '"$ROOT/bin/gstack-pathed" run',
+  '. "$ROOT/lib/sourced.sh"',
+  "cat <<'EOF'", 'gstack-quoted-heredoc', 'EOF',
+  'cat <<EOF', '$(gstack-expanding)', 'gstack-heredoc-prose', 'EOF',
+  "bash <<'EOF'", 'gstack-interp', 'EOF',
+  '$B goto https://example.com',
+  'bun run build-thing',
+  './setup --quiet',
+  FENCE, '',
+].join('\n');
+const bins = ['echoed', 'subst', 'commented', 'casepat', 'bare', 'pathed', 'quoted-heredoc', 'expanding', 'heredoc-prose', 'interp', 'prose', 'slash', 'observed', 'gapper'];
+const tree = {
+  'test/skill-e2e-alpha.test.ts': "import './helpers/h';\n",
+  'test/helpers/h.ts': "const a = path.join(ROOT, 'lib', 'joined.ts');\nconst b = 'lib/quoted.ts';\nexport { a, b };\n",
+  'lib/joined.ts': '', 'lib/quoted.ts': '', 'lib/deep.ts': '', 'lib/sourced.sh': '#!/bin/sh\n', 'lib/unreached.ts': '',
+  'alpha/SKILL.md.tmpl': skill,
+  'bin/gstack-start': '#!/usr/bin/env bash\ngstack-helper "$@"\n',
+  'bin/gstack-helper': "#!/usr/bin/env bun\nimport '../lib/deep';\n",
+  'bin/gstack-config': '#!/usr/bin/env bash\necho config\n',
+  ...Object.fromEntries(bins.map(name => [`bin/gstack-${name}`, '#!/bin/sh\n'])),
+  'test/skill-e2e-beta.test.ts': '', 'test/skill-e2e-gamma.test.ts': '', 'test/skill-e2e-delta.test.ts': '',
+  'gamma/SKILL.md.tmpl': `# gamma\n\n${FENCE}bash\ngstack-config get proactive\n${FENCE}\n`,
+  'scripts/build.sh': 'bun build --compile browse/src/cli.ts --outfile browse/dist/browse\n', 'browse/src/cli.ts': "import './page';\n", 'browse/src/page.ts': '',
+  'scripts/thing.ts': '', 'scripts/resolvers/index.ts': '', 'setup': '#!/usr/bin/env bash\n',
+  'package.json': JSON.stringify({ scripts: { 'build-thing': 'bun run scripts/thing.ts' } }),
+};
+const maps = {
+  e2eTouchfiles: {
+    alpha: ['test/skill-e2e-alpha.test.ts', 'alpha/**'], beta: ['test/skill-e2e-beta.test.ts'],
+    gamma: ['test/skill-e2e-gamma.test.ts', 'gamma/**'], delta: ['test/skill-e2e-delta.test.ts', 'bin/gstack-config', 'lib/deep.ts'],
+  },
+  judgeTouchfiles: {}, globalTouchfiles: [] as string[],
+};
+const profileMaps = { ...maps, tiers: { alpha: 'gate', beta: 'gate', gamma: 'gate', delta: 'gate' } as const };
+const observed = map({ beta: { observations: 3, withCommands: 2, commands: ['bin/gstack-observed'], costUsd: 2, costRuns: 3 },
+  alpha: { observations: 4, withCommands: 4, commands: [], costUsd: 5, costRuns: 4 }, gamma: { observations: 2, withCommands: 0, commands: [] } });
+
+describe('exercised consumers on a synthetic tree', () => {
+  const root = fixtureRepo(tree);
+  const ex = exercisedConsumers(maps, root, { observed, stopAt: ['setup'] });
+  const alpha = ex.closure('alpha');
+
+  test('each kept edge class reaches its file, with its provenance', () => {
+    expect(alpha.get('alpha/SKILL.md.tmpl')).toBe('touchfile');
+    expect(alpha.get('bin/gstack-start')).toBe('skill bash via bin/gstack-start');
+    expect(alpha.get('lib/deep.ts')).toBe('skill bash via bin/gstack-start');
+    expect(alpha.get('lib/joined.ts')).toBe('import');
+    expect(alpha.get('lib/quoted.ts')).toBe('import');
+    for (const file of ['bin/gstack-subst', 'bin/gstack-pathed', 'lib/sourced.sh', 'bin/gstack-expanding', 'bin/gstack-interp', 'browse/src/page.ts', 'scripts/thing.ts', 'setup']) {
+      expect(alpha.has(file), file).toBe(true);
+    }
+    expect(ex.closure('beta').get('bin/gstack-observed')).toBe('observed bin/gstack-observed');
+  });
+
+  test('messages, comments, case patterns, bare assignments, quoted and expanded heredoc prose, prose and slash commands are not edges', () => {
+    for (const name of ['echoed', 'commented', 'casepat', 'bare', 'quoted-heredoc', 'heredoc-prose', 'prose', 'slash']) {
+      expect(alpha.has(`bin/gstack-${name}`), name).toBe(false);
+    }
+    expect(ex.e2e.get('lib/unreached.ts')).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  test('the closure stops at a full-gate file and at the global set', () => {
+    const stopped = exercisedConsumers({ ...maps, globalTouchfiles: ['bin/gstack-start'] }, fixtureRepo(tree), { observed, stopAt: ['setup'] });
+    expect(stopped.closure('alpha').has('bin/gstack-start')).toBe(true);
+    expect(stopped.closure('alpha').has('lib/deep.ts')).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  test('bins in recorded commands: paths, bare names, PTY lines and compiled outfiles', () => {
+    expect(ex.binsInCommand('gstack-start --x && "$B" goto y')).toEqual(['bin/gstack-start', 'browse/dist/browse']);
+    expect(ex.binsInCommand('PTY:gstack-config-get proactive')).toEqual(['bin/gstack-config']);
+    expect(ex.binsInCommand('"$ROOT/bin/gstack-start" --x')).toEqual(['bin/gstack-start']);
+    expect(ex.binsInCommand('run /gstack-start next')).toEqual([]);
+    expect(ex.commandFiles('browse/dist/browse').sort()).toEqual(['browse/src/cli.ts', 'browse/src/page.ts']);
+  });
+
+  test('the variant-c miss shapes stay selected in the shadow (negative controls)', () => {
+    const shadow = (changedFiles: string[], selectedE2E: string[]) => selectPrProfile({
+      maps: profileMaps, profile: ['alpha', 'beta', 'gamma', 'delta'], selectedE2E, selectedJudges: [], changedFiles,
+      derived: deriveDependencies(maps, root), exercised: ex,
+    }).shadow!;
+    // A preamble hub a touchfile maps only for another case (skill-start/end x3; gstack-config for the PTY case with no observations).
+    expect(shadow(['bin/gstack-config'], ['delta']).e2e).toEqual(['delta', 'gamma']);
+    expect(observed.cases.gamma!.withCommands).toBe(0);
+    // A lib reached only through a bin the skill runs (redact-patterns via gstack-redact).
+    expect(shadow(['lib/deep.ts'], ['delta']).e2e).toEqual(['alpha', 'delta']);
+    expect(shadow(['lib/deep.ts'], ['delta']).provenance).toEqual([{ file: 'lib/deep.ts', summary: 'selects 2 case(s): skill bash via bin/gstack-start (1), touchfile (1)' }]);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('the five recorded variant-c misses on this checkout', () => {
+  const shadowOf = (file: string) => computePaidCaseSelection({ profile: 'pr', env: {}, changedFiles: [file], packageVersionOnly: true }).coverage!.shadow!;
+
+  test('skill-start reds stay in the shadow of a gstack-skill-start change', () => {
+    const shadow = shadowOf('bin/gstack-skill-start');
+    expect(shadow.error).toBeUndefined();
+    for (const id of ['qa-functional-webhook-fix', 'qa-functional-cli-report', 'ship-exploratory-plan-checks']) expect(shadow.e2e, id).toContain(id);
+  }, 60_000);
+
+  test('gstack-config reaches the PTY case that records no commands; redact-patterns reaches ship-docsync-store', () => {
+    expect(shadowOf('bin/gstack-config').e2e).toContain('plan-mode-no-op');
+    const committed = parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, EXERCISED_MAP_PATH), 'utf8'));
+    const ex = exercisedConsumers(PR_PROFILE_MAPS, ROOT, { observed: committed, stopAt: PR_FULL_GATE_FILES });
+    expect(ex.closure('plan-mode-no-op').get('bin/gstack-config')).toStartWith('skill bash via');
+    expect(ex.closure('ship-docsync-store').has('lib/redact-patterns.ts')).toBe(true);
+  }, 60_000);
+});
+
+describe('shadow output never changes the real selection', () => {
+  test('mode, cases, judges and reasons equal the selection without a shadow', () => {
+    for (const files of [['bin/gstack-config'], ['design/src/evolve.ts'], ['review/SKILL.md.tmpl'], ['lib/fs-utils.ts', 'docs/x.md'], ['ETHOS.md']]) {
+      const withShadow = selectPrProfile({ selectedE2E: [], selectedJudges: [], changedFiles: files });
+      const without = selectPrProfile({ selectedE2E: [], selectedJudges: [], changedFiles: files, exercised: null });
+      expect(withShadow.shadow, files.join()).toBeDefined();
+      const { shadow, ...rest } = withShadow;
+      expect(rest, files.join()).toEqual(without);
+      if (withShadow.mode === 'full-fallback') expect(shadow!.e2e).toEqual(withShadow.e2e);
+    }
+  }, 60_000);
+
+  test('the coverage summary prints one shadow line; a broken map is reported, not fatal', () => {
+    const result = computePaidCaseSelection({ profile: 'pr', env: {}, changedFiles: ['design/src/evolve.ts'], packageVersionOnly: true });
+    const lines = formatPrCoverageSummary({ profile: 'pr', selection: result.selection, prCoverage: result.coverage });
+    expect(lines.filter(line => line.includes('Shadow exercised-path map (not active)'))).toHaveLength(1);
+    const broken = selectPrProfile({ selectedE2E: [], selectedJudges: [], changedFiles: ['design/src/evolve.ts'], exercised: null });
+    expect(formatPrCoverageSummary({ prCoverage: { ...broken, shadow: { e2e: broken.e2e, wouldDrop: [], wouldAdd: [], provenance: [], predictedSavingUsd: 0, unpricedCases: 0, unknownCostShare: 0, error: 'bad map' } } })
+      .some(line => line.includes('unavailable (bad map); selection unaffected'))).toBe(true);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('union-only refreshes', () => {
+  const base = map({ a: { observations: 2, withCommands: 1, commands: ['bin/x'], costUsd: 4, costRuns: 2 } }, ['1']);
+
+  test('disjoint branches merge to the same union in either order, and nothing is removed', () => {
+    const left = map({ a: { observations: 1, withCommands: 1, commands: ['bin/y'] } }, ['2'], '2026-10-02T00:00:00Z');
+    const right = map({ b: { observations: 1, withCommands: 1, commands: ['bin/z'], costUsd: 1, costRuns: 1 } }, ['3'], '2026-10-03T00:00:00Z');
+    const one = mergeExercisedMap(mergeExercisedMap(base, left, 't'), right, 't');
+    const two = mergeExercisedMap(mergeExercisedMap(base, right, 't'), left, 't');
+    expect(one).toEqual(two);
+    expect(one.cases.a!.commands).toEqual(['bin/x', 'bin/y']);
+    expect(one.cases.b!.commands).toEqual(['bin/z']);
+    expect(one.sourceRuns).toEqual(['1', '2', '3']);
+    expect(one.observedThrough).toBe('2026-10-03T00:00:00Z');
+    expect(one.cases.a!.costUsd).toBe(4);
+  });
+
+  test('empty or missing artifacts never erase consumers, and a run already merged is not counted twice', () => {
+    expect(mergeExercisedMap(base, map({}, ['9']), 't').cases).toEqual(base.cases);
+    expect(mergeExercisedMap(base, map({ a: { observations: 1, withCommands: 0, commands: [] } }, ['9']), 't').cases.a!.commands).toEqual(['bin/x']);
+    expect(mergeExercisedMap(base, map({ a: { observations: 5, withCommands: 5, commands: ['bin/x'], costUsd: 9, costRuns: 1 } }, ['1']), 't').cases.a)
+      .toEqual(base.cases.a!);
+    const costed = mergeExercisedMap(base, map({ a: { observations: 1, withCommands: 1, commands: [], costUsd: 7, costRuns: 1 } }, ['4']), 't');
+    expect(costed.cases.a).toMatchObject({ observations: 3, costUsd: 5, costRuns: 3 });
+    expect(parseExercisedMap(formatExercisedMap(costed))).toEqual(costed);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('shadow-only map data', () => {
+  test('a map-only diff selects no paid case and says why', () => {
+    const selection = selectPrProfile({ selectedE2E: [], selectedJudges: [], changedFiles: [EXERCISED_MAP_PATH] });
+    expect(selection).toMatchObject({ mode: 'pr', e2e: [], judges: [], unknownFiles: [], derivedFiles: [], noConsumerFiles: [] });
+    expect(selection.shadow!.e2e).toEqual([]);
+    expect(selection.reasons).toContain(`${EXERCISED_MAP_PATH} is shadow-only data (it changes no selection yet), so it selects no paid case (docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md#exercised-path-map)`);
+    const plan = computePaidCaseSelection({ profile: 'pr', env: {}, changedFiles: [EXERCISED_MAP_PATH, 'package.json'], packageVersionOnly: true });
+    expect(plan.selection.e2e).toEqual([]);
+    expect(plan.selection.judges).toEqual([]);
+  }, 60_000);
+});
+
+describe('refresh contract: unavailable or partial input writes nothing', () => {
+  const root = fixtureRepo(tree);
+  const ex = exercisedConsumers(maps, root, { observed, stopAt: ['setup'] });
+  const report = (files: Record<string, string>) => {
+    const dir = fs.mkdtempSync(path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'exercised-refresh-'));
+    for (const [file, text] of Object.entries(files)) { fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(path.join(dir, file)), { recursive: true }); fs.writeFileSync(path.join(dir, file), text); }
+    return dir;
+  };
+  const outcome = (id: string) => JSON.stringify({ case: id, execution: 'executed', cost_usd: 1 });
+  const shard = { 'paid-slice-1-a1/shards/skill-e2e-beta/junit.xml': '<testsuite><testcase name="beta"/></testsuite>' };
+  const code = (run: () => unknown) => { try { run(); return 0; } catch (error) { return error instanceof RefreshError ? error.exitCode : -1; } };
+
+  test('report directories: missing is unavailable; no shards, no trial outcomes or an executed case without a shard is incomplete', () => {
+    expect(code(() => refreshFromReportDirs([path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'no-such-census-dir')], '1', observed, ex, 't', profileMaps))).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable);
+    expect(code(() => refreshFromReportDirs([report({ 'trial-outcomes.jsonl': outcome('beta') })], '1', observed, ex, 't', profileMaps))).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete);
+    expect(code(() => refreshFromReportDirs([report(shard)], '1', observed, ex, 't', profileMaps))).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete);
+    expect(() => refreshFromReportDirs([report({ ...shard, 'trial-outcomes.jsonl': `${outcome('beta')}\n${outcome('alpha')}` })], '1', observed, ex, 't', profileMaps))
+      .toThrow('1 executed case(s) have no shard artifact: alpha');
+    const { merged } = refreshFromReportDirs([report({ ...shard, 'trial-outcomes.jsonl': outcome('beta') })], '9', observed, ex, 't', profileMaps);
+    expect(merged.sourceRuns).toEqual(['1', '9']);
+    expect(merged.cases.beta!.observations).toBe(4);
+  });
+
+  test('--from-run: a 403, a missing map or a malformed map leaves the target byte-identical; a complete artifact is unioned', () => {
+    const target = path.join(fs.mkdtempSync(path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'exercised-target-')), 'exercised-commands.json');
+    fs.writeFileSync(target, formatExercisedMap(observed));
+    const before = fs.readFileSync(target, 'utf8');
+    const artifact = (files: Record<string, string>): ArtifactDownload => (_runId, dir) => {
+      for (const [file, text] of Object.entries(files)) { fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(path.join(dir, file)), { recursive: true }); fs.writeFileSync(path.join(dir, file), text); }
+      return { status: 0, stderr: '' };
+    };
+    let forbidden: unknown;
+    try { refreshFromRun('42', target, () => ({ status: 1, stderr: 'HTTP 403: Resource not accessible by integration' })); } catch (error) { forbidden = error; }
+    expect(forbidden).toBeInstanceOf(RefreshError);
+    expect((forbidden as RefreshError).exitCode).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable);
+    expect((forbidden as Error).message).toContain('pass its directory with --from-dir');
+    expect(code(() => refreshFromRun('42', target, artifact({ 'exercised-map-a1/report.md': 'x' })))).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete);
+    expect(code(() => refreshFromRun('42', target, artifact({ 'exercised-map-a1/exercised-commands.json': '{"schema":1,"cases":' })))).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete);
+    expect(code(() => refreshFromRun('42', target, artifact({ 'exercised-map-a1/exercised-commands.json': formatExercisedMap(map({}, ['5'])), 'exercised-map-a2/exercised-commands.json': '{}' })))).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.incomplete);
+    expect(code(() => refreshFromRun('not-a-run', target))).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable);
+    expect(fs.readFileSync(target, 'utf8')).toBe(before);
+    const fresh = map({ beta: { observations: 1, withCommands: 1, commands: ['bin/gstack-new'] } }, ['5'], '2026-10-09T00:00:00Z');
+    refreshFromRun('5', target, artifact({ 'exercised-map-a1/exercised-commands.json': formatExercisedMap(fresh) }));
+    const after = parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(target, 'utf8'));
+    expect(after.cases.beta!.commands).toEqual(['bin/gstack-new', 'bin/gstack-observed']);
+    expect(after.sourceRuns).toEqual(['1', '5']);
+  });
+
+  test('the CLI exits 2 on usage and 3 on a missing report directory, writing nothing', () => {
+    const out = path.join(fs.mkdtempSync(path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'exercised-cli-')), 'map.json');
+    const cli = (args: string[]) => spawnSync('bun', ['run', path.join(ROOT, 'scripts/exercised-map.ts'), ...args], { cwd: ROOT, encoding: 'utf8', timeout: 60_000 });
+    expect(cli([]).status).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.usage);
+    const missing = cli(['--from-dir', path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'no-such-census-dir'), '--run-id', '1', '--out', out]);
+    expect(missing.status).toBe(REFRESH_EXIT.unavailable);
+    expect(missing.stderr).toContain('nothing was written, the committed union is unchanged');
+    expect(fs.existsSync(out)).toBe(false);
+  }, 90_000);
+});
+
+describe('recorded commands and MAP_GAP', () => {
+  const root = fixtureRepo(tree);
+  const ex = exercisedConsumers(maps, root, { observed, stopAt: ['setup'] });
+  const report = fs.mkdtempSync(path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'exercised-report-'));
+  const write = (file: string, text: string) => { fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(path.join(report, file)), { recursive: true }); fs.writeFileSync(path.join(report, file), text); };
+  write('paid-slice-1-a1/shards/skill-e2e-alpha--alpha.t1/result.json', JSON.stringify({ tests: [{ name: 'alpha', transcript: [{ type: 'tool_use', input: { command: 'gstack-start && $B goto x' } }] }] }));
+  write('paid-slice-1-a1/shards/skill-e2e-beta/junit.xml', '<testsuite><testcase name="beta"/></testsuite>');
+  write('paid-slice-1-a1/shards/skill-e2e-beta/session.jsonl', `${JSON.stringify({ type: 'tool_use', input: { command: 'bin/gstack-gapper --x' } })}\n`);
+  write('paid-slice-1-a1/shards/skill-e2e-gamma/junit.xml', '<testsuite><testcase name="gamma"/></testsuite>');
+  write('paid-slice-1-a1/trial-outcomes.jsonl', [{ case: 'alpha', execution: 'executed', cost_usd: 1.5 }, { case: 'alpha', execution: 'executed', cost_usd: 0, cost_known: false }, { case: 'beta', execution: 'reused', cost_usd: 3 }].map(record => JSON.stringify(record)).join('\n'));
+
+  test('commands are read per shard and attributed to their cases', () => {
+    const commands = attributeCommands(readShardCommands(report), profileMaps);
+    expect(commands.get('alpha')).toEqual(['gstack-start && $B goto x']);
+    expect(commands.get('beta')).toEqual(['bin/gstack-gapper --x']);
+    expect(commands.get('gamma')).toEqual([]);
+    expect(observeRun(commands, ex, { runId: '7', observedAt: 't', costs: readCaseCosts(report) }).cases.alpha)
+      .toEqual({ observations: 1, withCommands: 1, commands: ['bin/gstack-start', 'browse/dist/browse'], costUsd: 1.5, costRuns: 1 });
+  });
+
+  test('a command outside the static-plus-observed closure is a MAP_GAP; a skill-running case with no commands is blind', () => {
+    const commands = attributeCommands(readShardCommands(report), profileMaps);
+    expect(mapGaps(commands, ex)).toEqual([{ id: 'beta', command: 'bin/gstack-gapper' }]);
+    expect(blindCases(commands, ex)).toEqual(['gamma']);
+  });
+
+  test('the paid report writes MAP_GAP lines without failing, and an unreadable checkout degrades to unavailable', () => {
+    const live = fs.mkdtempSync(path.join(os.tmpdir(), 'exercised-live-'));
+    const committed = parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, EXERCISED_MAP_PATH), 'utf8'));
+    const ex = exercisedConsumers(PR_PROFILE_MAPS, ROOT, { observed: committed, stopAt: PR_FULL_GATE_FILES });
+    const outside = fs.readdirSync(path.join(ROOT, 'bin')).map(name => `bin/${name}`).find(file => /^bin\/gstack-[a-z-]+$/.test(file) && !ex.closure('ship-docsync-store').has(file))!;
+    fs.mkdirSync(path.join(live, 'paid-slice-2-a1/shards/skill-e2e-ship-docsync--ship-docsync-store.t1'), { recursive: true });
+    fs.writeFileSync(path.join(live, 'paid-slice-2-a1/shards/skill-e2e-ship-docsync--ship-docsync-store.t1/r.json'),
+      JSON.stringify({ tests: [{ name: 'ship-docsync-store', transcript: [{ type: 'tool_use', input: { command: `${path.basename(outside)} --help` } }] }] }));
+    const line = `MAP_GAP ship-docsync-store ${outside}: non-blocking for this PR; the next census refresh widens the map (docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md#exercised-path-map)`;
+    expect(formatMapGap({ id: 'ship-docsync-store', command: outside })).toBe(line);
+    expect(reportMapGaps(live, new Set(['ship-docsync-store']), ROOT)).toEqual([line]);
+    expect(fs.readFileSync(path.join(live, 'map-gaps.txt'), 'utf8')).toBe(`${line}\n`);
+    expect(reportMapGaps(live, new Set(['ship-docsync-store']), path.join(live, 'no-checkout'))).toEqual([]);
+    expect(fs.readFileSync(path.join(live, 'map-gaps.txt'), 'utf8')).toStartWith('MAP_GAP unavailable:');
+  }, 60_000);
+});
+
+describe('parity with the measured prototype', () => {
+  /** Files the shipped function reaches beyond the prototype, each with the reviewed edge class behind it. */
+  const REVIEWED_SUPERSET: Record<string, string> = {
+    setup: './setup, $ROOT/setup and join(..., "setup") exec edges (plan A2-2); setup is a full-gate file, so the closure stops there',
+  };
+
+  test('the shipped map equals or is a reviewed superset of the prototype map on this checkout', () => {
+    const committed = parseExercisedMap(fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, EXERCISED_MAP_PATH), 'utf8'));
+    const prototype = prototypeConsumers(PR_PROFILE_MAPS, ROOT, committed, PR_FULL_GATE_FILES);
+    const shipped = exercisedConsumers(PR_PROFILE_MAPS, ROOT, { observed: committed, stopAt: PR_FULL_GATE_FILES });
+    const missing = [...prototype].flatMap(([file, ids]) => [...ids].filter(id => !shipped.e2e.get(file)?.has(id)).map(id => `${file} ${id}`));
+    expect(missing).toEqual([]);
+    const unreviewed = [...new Set([...shipped.e2e].filter(([file, ids]) => [...ids].some(id => !prototype.get(file)?.has(id))).map(([file]) => file))]
+      .filter(file => !Object.hasOwn(REVIEWED_SUPERSET, file));
+    expect(unreviewed.map(file => `${file}: reached beyond the prototype; review the edge class and add it to REVIEWED_SUPERSET with its reason`)).toEqual([]);
+  }, 60_000);
+});
+
+describe('replay of the recorded red PR runs', () => {
+  test('every recorded failed gate case stays in the shadow selection (the PR receipt: bun run test:exercised-map --replay)', () => {
+    const fixture = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, REPLAY_FIXTURE), 'utf8')) as { failedGateCases: number; runs: ReplayRun[] };
+    expect(fixture.runs.reduce((sum, run) => sum + run.failedGateCases.length, 0)).toBe(fixture.failedGateCases);
+    const rows = replayShadow(fixture.runs);
+    expect(rows.flatMap(row => row.misses.map(id => `${row.runId}:${id}`))).toEqual([]);
+    expect(formatShadowReplay(rows).at(-1)).toBe('- MISSES (failed, not in the shadow selection): 0');
+  }, 120_000);
+
+  test('a red the shadow drops is reported as a miss', () => {
+    const [row] = replayShadow([{ runId: 1, pr: 1, packageVersionOnly: true, failedGateCases: ['plan-mode-no-op'], changedFiles: ['docs/designs/x.md'] }]);
+    expect(row!.misses).toEqual(['plan-mode-no-op']);
+    expect(formatShadowReplay([row!]).slice(-2)).toEqual(['- MISSES (failed, not in the shadow selection): 1', '  - 1 #1 plan-mode-no-op']);
+  });
+});

test/fixtures/exercised-map-replay.json

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+{
+  "schema": 1,
+  "source": "evals.yml pull_request runs 2026-10-07..2026-10-17 (225 runs): every run with an executed failed gate trial, deduplicated per (run, case); changed files are the three-dot compare of the merge-base with the run head",
+  "failedGateCases": 47,
+  "runs": [
+    {"runId":37560420246,"pr":3059,"headSha":"d6250a058af971dd697036acd6e05f7740e8e210","packageVersionOnly":true,"failedGateCases":["plan-mode-no-op"],"changedFiles":[".github/actionlint.yaml",".github/workflows/eval-sweep.yml","CHANGELOG.md","CONTRIBUTING.md","VERSION","agents-digest/gstack-AGENTS.md","bin/gstack-config","docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md","package.json","scripts/eval-flake-rank.ts","scripts/harness-version.json","scripts/lib/measure-bar.ts","scripts/ship-measure-sweep.ts","scripts/ship-measure.ts","scripts/test-pr-profile.ts","ship/sections/measure.md","ship/sections/measure.md.tmpl","test/ci-image-tag-binding.test.ts","test/eval-sweep-workflow.test.ts","test/fixtures/module-size-ratchet.json","test/helpers/carve-guards.ts","test/helpers/touchfiles-data.ts","test/ship-measure-bar.test.ts","test/ship-measure-loop-skill.test.ts","test/ship-measure-seeded-fixture.test.ts","test/ship-measure-sweep.test.ts","test/ship-measure.test.ts"]},
+    {"runId":37564096977,"pr":3059,"headSha":"36c0cf1579a2f823783c2ecee5c509e872b0c20a","packageVersionOnly":true,"failedGateCases":["qa-functional-cli-report"],"changedFiles":[".github/actionlint.yaml",".github/workflows/eval-sweep.yml","CHANGELOG.md","CONTRIBUTING.md","VERSION","agents-digest/gstack-AGENTS.md","bin/gstack-config","docs/TESTING_INTERNALS.md","package.json","scripts/eval-flake-rank.ts","scripts/harness-version.json","scripts/lib/measure-bar.ts","scripts/ship-measure-sweep.ts","scripts/ship-measure.ts","scripts/test-pr-profile.ts","ship/sections/measure.md","ship/sections/measure.md.tmpl","test/ci-image-tag-binding.test.ts","test/eval-sweep-workflow.test.ts","test/fixtures/module-size-ratchet.json","test/helpers/carve-guards.ts","test/helpers/touchfiles-data.ts","test/ship-measure-bar.test.ts","test/ship-measure-loop-skill.test.ts","test/ship-measure-seeded-fixture.test.ts","test/ship-measure-sweep.test.ts","test/ship-measure.test.ts","test/skill-e2e-plan-mode-no-op.test.ts"]},
+    {"runId":37691665506,"pr":3069,"headSha":"068a3099baf660e995c693b5625b4b3e4546b7a8","packageVersionOnly":true,"failedGateCases":["shared-libs-read-only"],"changedFiles":[".github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug_report.md",".github/docker/Dockerfile.ci",".github/workflows/evals-periodic.yml",".github/workflows/free-tests.yml",".github/workflows/measure-journal-read.yml","CHANGELOG.md","README.md","SKILL.md","TODOS.md","VERSION","agents-digest/gstack-AGENTS.md","autoplan/SKILL.md","autoplan/bin/guard-journal.ts","autoplan/bin/guard-log.ts","autoplan/bin/guard-reasons.ts","autoplan/bin/phase-publication-hook.ts","autoplan/sections/ceo-phase.md","autoplan/sections/ceo-phase.md.tmpl","autoplan/sections/design-phase.md","autoplan/sections/design-phase.md.tmpl","autoplan/sections/dx-phase.md","autoplan/sections/dx-phase.md.tmpl","autoplan/sections/eng-phase.md","autoplan/sections/eng-phase.md.tmpl","autoplan/sections/phase-close.md","autoplan/sections/phase-close.md.tmpl","benchmark-models/SKILL.md","benchmark/SKILL.md","bin/gstack-artifacts-init","bin/gstack-brain-lock.sh","bin/gstack-brain-restore","bin/gstack-brain-sync","bin/gstack-codex-probe","bin/gstack-codex-status.sh","bin/gstack-config","bin/gstack-doctor","bin/gstack-gbrain-source-wireup","bin/gstack-greptile-early","bin/gstack-post","bin/gstack-pr-title-rewrite.sh","bin/gstack-question-preference","bin/gstack-redact-prepush","bin/gstack-skill-start","bin/gstack-slug","browse/SKILL.md","browse/test/extension-sender-auth.test.ts","canary/SKILL.md","codex/SKILL.md","codex/SKILL.md.tmpl","codex/sections/challenge-mode.md","codex/sections/challenge-mode.md.tmpl","codex/sections/consult-mode.md","codex/sections/consult-mode.md.tmpl","codex/sections/review-mode.md","codex/sections/review-mode.md.tmpl","context-restore/SKILL.md","context-restore/SKILL.md.tmpl","context-save/SKILL.md","context-save/SKILL.md.tmpl","design-consultation/SKILL.md","design-consultation/sections/proposal-and-preview.md","design-html/SKILL.md","design-review/SKILL.md","design-shotgun/SKILL.md","devex-review/SKILL.md","diagram/SKILL.md","docs/autoplan-guard-troubleshooting.md","docs/designs/FOLLOWUP_WAVE_2026_10_07.md","docs/gbrain-sync-errors.md","docs/gbrain-sync.md","docs/gbrain-write-surfaces.md","docs/troubleshooting.md","document-generate/SKILL.md","document-release/SKILL.md","document-release/sections/release-body.md","health/SKILL.md","investigate/SKILL.md","ios-clean/SKILL.md","ios-design-review/SKILL.md","ios-fix/SKILL.md","ios-qa/SKILL.md","ios-sync/SKILL.md","land-and-deploy/SKILL.md","landing-report/SKILL.md","learn/SKILL.md","lib/claude-journal-records.ts","lib/claude-owned-journal.ts","lib/claude-public-transcript.ts","lib/greptile-early.ts","lib/gstack-post.ts","lib/outside-review-result.ts","make-pdf/SKILL.md","office-hours/SKILL.md","office-hours/sections/design-and-handoff.md","open-gstack-browser/SKILL.md","package.json","pair-agent/SKILL.md","plan-ceo-review/SKILL.md","plan-ceo-review/sections/review-sections.md","plan-design-review/SKILL.md","plan-devex-review/SKILL.md","plan-devex-review/sections/review-sections.md","plan-eng-review/SKILL.md","plan-eng-review/sections/review-sections.md","plan-tune/SKILL.md","plan-tune/SKILL.md.tmpl","qa-only/SKILL.md","qa/SKILL.md","qa/sections/browser-setup.md","retro/SKILL.md","review/SKILL.md","review/greptile-triage.md","review/sections/adversarial.md","review/sections/review-army.md","scrape/SKILL.md","scripts/harness-version.json","scripts/lib/windows-curation.ts","scripts/measure-journal-read.ts","scripts/resolvers/aside.ts","scripts/resolvers/constants.ts","scripts/resolvers/design.ts","scripts/resolvers/gbrain.ts","scripts/resolvers/index.ts","scripts/resolvers/outside-voice-steps.ts","scripts/resolvers/outside-voice.ts","scripts/resolvers/preamble/generate-brain-sync-block.ts","scripts/resolvers/question-tuning.ts","scripts/resolvers/redact-doc.ts","scripts/resolvers/review-army.ts","scripts/resolvers/spec-review.ts","scripts/test-pr-profile.ts","scripts/typecheck-test-baseline.json","setup","setup-browser-cookies/SKILL.md","setup-deploy/SKILL.md","setup-gbrain/SKILL.md","ship/SKILL.md","ship/SKILL.md.tmpl","ship/sections/adversarial.md","ship/sections/documentation.md","ship/sections/greptile-early.md","ship/sections/greptile-early.md.tmpl","ship/sections/greptile.md","ship/sections/greptile.md.tmpl","ship/sections/manifest.json","ship/sections/pr-body.md","ship/sections/pr-body.md.tmpl","ship/sections/review-army.md","skillify/SKILL.md","spec/SKILL.md","spec/sections/gate-and-file.md","spec/sections/gate-and-file.md.tmpl","sync-gbrain/SKILL.md","test-audit/SKILL.md","test/aside-driver.test.ts","test/autoplan-bounded-journal.test.ts","test/autoplan-dual-voice-evidence.test.ts","test/autoplan-guard-log.test.ts","test/autoplan-guard-reasons.test.ts","test/autoplan-long-session-observer.test.ts","test/autoplan-publication-guard.test.ts","test/autoplan-publication-hook.test.ts","test/autoplan-publication-payload.test.ts","test/auLine 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