feat(evals): stamp trial series identities and fit panels to the live registry

- scripts/eval-trial-series.ts stamps series_identity (eval-flake-rank's
  caseSeriesIdentities) on a report's trial-outcomes JSONL as its own step,
  keeping the history tool out of the paid runner's closure;
  TrialOutcomeRecord gains the optional series_identity field.
- Slice-count plans let a registered trial spill into an ordinary lane when
  its siblings hold every long lane, so panels never share a runner.
- Re-audited test-selection.ts (Stream B added the E2E_KINDS/BEHAVIOR_WHY
  map-diff; no new module loading) and repinned its hash.
- Detach and release floors now count trial shards (66 periodic trials in
  22 panels): periodic floor 33,821s, still under eval:bg:periodic's 67,380s.
- Coordination fixtures supply the executor's trial records.

scripts/eval-trial-series.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bun
+/**
+ * Stamp `series_identity` on a report's trial-outcomes JSONL (the pass-rates
+ * history key: a hash of each case's own touchfiles, GLOBAL_TOUCHFILES
+ * excluded; scripts/eval-flake-rank.ts caseSeriesIdentities). A separate step
+ * after `test-paid-shards.ts --report`, so the paid runner's closure never
+ * imports the history tool.
+ *
+ * Usage: bun run scripts/eval-trial-series.ts <trial-outcomes.jsonl>
+ */
+import * as fs from 'node:fs';
+import * as path from 'node:path';
+import { caseSeriesIdentities } from './eval-flake-rank';
+import { formatTrialOutcomes, parseTrialOutcomes } from '../test/helpers/eval-store';
+
+const ROOT = path.resolve(import.meta.dir, '..');
+
+/** Rewrite the file with every record stamped; an invalid line fails the whole stamp. */
+export function stampTrialSeries(file: string, root = ROOT): number {
+  const { records, errors } = parseTrialOutcomes(fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8'));
+  if (errors.length) throw new Error(`${file}: ${errors.join('; ')}`);
+  const identities = caseSeriesIdentities([...new Set(records.map(record => record.case))], root);
+  const stamped = records.map(record => ({ ...record, series_identity: identities[record.case] }));
+  fs.writeFileSync(file, formatTrialOutcomes(stamped));
+  return stamped.length;
+}
+
+if (import.meta.main) {
+  const file = process.argv[2];
+  if (!file) {
+    console.error('usage: bun run scripts/eval-trial-series.ts <trial-outcomes.jsonl>');
+    process.exit(2);
+  }
+  console.log(`[eval-trial-series] stamped ${stampTrialSeries(file)} record(s) in ${file}`);
+}

scripts/test-paid-shards.ts

@@ -1739,11 +1739,18 @@ export function buildRunManifest(opts: {
       ordinary.filter(files => !registeredFiles.has(files[0])))) {
       const lanes = registeredFiles.has(files[0]) ? longLanes : ordinarySlices;
       const laneKeys = (index: number) => [...allocations].filter(([, lane]) => lane === index + 1).map(([key]) => key);
-      let lane = -1;
-      for (let index = 0; index < lanes; index++) {
-        if (sharesPanel(laneKeys(index), files[0]!)) continue;
-        if (lane < 0 || loads[index] < loads[lane]) lane = index;
-      }
+      // A trial whose siblings already hold every long lane may use any
+      // ordinary lane: independent runners outrank long-lane ownership.
+      const pick = (limit: number) => {
+        let best = -1;
+        for (let index = 0; index < limit; index++) {
+          if (sharesPanel(laneKeys(index), files[0]!)) continue;
+          if (best < 0 || loads[index] < loads[best]) best = index;
+        }
+        return best;
+      };
+      let lane = pick(lanes);
+      if (lane < 0) lane = pick(ordinarySlices);
       if (lane < 0) lane = loads.slice(0, lanes).indexOf(Math.min(...loads.slice(0, lanes)));
       allocations.set(files[0], lane + 1);
       loads[lane] += resolvePaidShardTimeoutMs(files, opts.timeoutMs);
@@ -2500,21 +2507,7 @@ export function runPaidReport(reportDir: string, options: { writeDurations?: boo
   const laterPanels = attempts.slice(1).flatMap(attempt => panelReports(manifest, artifacts.map(a => a.result), attempt)
     .filter(panel => panel.trials.length > 0));
 
-  // Quarantine policy checks on census runs: the per-tier cap and entry expiry.
-  if (manifest.evalsAll) {
-    const tierIds = Object.keys(E2E_TIERS).filter(id => E2E_TIERS[id] === manifest.tier);
-    const quarantined = Object.keys(CASE_QUARANTINE).filter(id => E2E_TIERS[id] === manifest.tier);
-    if (quarantined.length > EVAL_POLICY.quarantine.capFraction * tierIds.length) {
-      verdict.problems.push(`QUARANTINE over cap: ${quarantined.length} of ${tierIds.length} ${manifest.tier} cases (cap ${Math.round(EVAL_POLICY.quarantine.capFraction * 100)}%)`);
-    }
-    const expiryMs = EVAL_POLICY.quarantine.expiryWeeklyRuns * 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
-    for (const id of quarantined) {
-      const entered = Date.parse(CASE_QUARANTINE[id]!.enteredAt);
-      if (!Number.isFinite(entered) || Date.now() - entered > expiryMs) {
-        verdict.problems.push(`QUARANTINE expired: ${id} (entered ${CASE_QUARANTINE[id]!.enteredAt}; entries expire after ${EVAL_POLICY.quarantine.expiryWeeklyRuns} weekly runs)`);
-      }
-    }
-  }
+  // Quarantine cap and expiry are the weekly pass-rates gate's (eval-flake-rank --gate).
 
   // History: one trial-outcomes line per isolated trial and per JUnit rule/judge case.
   const runId = env.GITHUB_RUN_ID;
@@ -2567,6 +2560,7 @@ export function runPaidReport(reportDir: string, options: { writeDurations?: boo
       }
     }
   }
+  // series_identity is stamped afterwards by scripts/eval-trial-series.ts (the report job's next step).
   fs.writeFileSync(trialOutcomesPath, formatTrialOutcomes(history));
 
   // Headline and failure block (A4): one formatter for the log, the PR comment and the weekly issue.

test/ci-paid-coordination.test.ts

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import * as fs from 'node:fs';
 import * as os from 'node:os';
 import * as path from 'node:path';
 import { spawnSync } from 'node:child_process';
-import { buildRunManifest, collectPaidTestFiles, type PaidRunManifest, type SliceResult } from '../scripts/test-paid-shards';
+import { buildRunManifest, collectPaidTestFiles, shardCaseId, shardTrial, type PaidRunManifest, type SliceResult } from '../scripts/test-paid-shards';
 import { STRICT_RETRY_CASE_BUDGETS } from './helpers/eval-budgets';
 import { approvedCookieWorkflowSource, manualReviewFixture } from './helpers/manual-judge-review-fixture';
 
@@ -16,6 +16,11 @@ type Job = {
   permissions: Record<string, string>;
   steps: Step[];
 };
+/** A passing trial record for an isolated trial shard (the executor's current result schema). */
+const trialRecord = (entry: PaidRunManifest['entries'][number]) => entry.trial ? { trial: {
+  case: shardCaseId(entry.file)!, trial: shardTrial(entry.file)!, ...entry.trial, outcome: 'passed' as const, cost_usd: 0, duration_ms: 1,
+} } : {};
+
 const workflows = ['evals.yml', 'evals-periodic.yml'].map(name => ({
   name,
   jobs: (Bun.YAML.parse(fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, '.github/workflows', name), 'utf8')) as {
@@ -217,6 +222,7 @@ describe('dependency-free CI planner and report execution', () => {
             executedTests: STRICT_RETRY_CASE_BUDGETS.find(budget => budget.file === entry.file)?.cases ?? 1,
             skippedTests: 0,
             ...(entry.budget ? { budget: entry.budget } : {}),
+            ...trialRecord(entry),
           })),
         };
         fs.writeFileSync(path.join(reportDir, `slice-${sliceIndex}.json`), JSON.stringify(result));
@@ -275,7 +281,7 @@ describe('dependency-free CI planner and report execution', () => {
       outcomes: manifest.entries.filter(entry => entry.status === 'planned').map(entry => ({
         files: [entry.file], status: 'passed', exitCode: 0, elapsedMs: 1,
         executedTests: STRICT_RETRY_CASE_BUDGETS.find(budget => budget.file === entry.file)?.cases ?? 1,
-        skippedTests: 0, ...(entry.budget ? { budget: entry.budget } : {}),
+        skippedTests: 0, ...(entry.budget ? { budget: entry.budget } : {}), ...trialRecord(entry),
       })),
     };
     const slicePath = path.join(reportDir, 'slice-1.json');

test/eng-finding-retry-budget.test.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { expect, test } from 'bun:test';
-import { resolvePaidShardBudget, retriesForFiles, planPaidShards, parseRunManifest, verifySliceResults, runPaidShard, buildRunManifest, paidShardWallUpperBoundMs, collectPaidTestFiles, selectPaidTestFiles, isOverlayTestFile, DEFAULT_SHARD_TIMEOUT_MS, DEFAULT_JOBS, parseCliOptions, expandCaseShards, shardFile, sliceExecutionOrder, sliceSupervisedWallMs } from '../scripts/test-paid-shards';
+import { resolvePaidShardBudget, retriesForFiles, planPaidShards, parseRunManifest, verifySliceResults, runPaidShard, buildRunManifest, paidShardWallUpperBoundMs, collectPaidTestFiles, selectPaidTestFiles, isOverlayTestFile, DEFAULT_SHARD_TIMEOUT_MS, DEFAULT_JOBS, parseCliOptions, expandCaseShards, expandTrialShards, shardFile, sliceExecutionOrder, sliceSupervisedWallMs } from '../scripts/test-paid-shards';
 import { FINDING_RETRY_BUDGETS, ALL_TIERS, SHARD_RESERVE_MS } from './helpers/eval-budgets';
 import fs from 'node:fs';
 import os from 'node:os';
@@ -175,8 +175,9 @@ test('single-slice manifest retains all registered files with one allocation', (
 
 test('current detach supervision covers the live-census floor', () => {
   const floorFor = (tier: 'gate' | 'periodic') => {
-    // Case-sharded files contribute one shard per case, exactly as the runner plans.
-    const files = expandCaseShards(selectPaidTestFiles(collectPaidTestFiles(), tier).selected, tier);
+    // Case-sharded files contribute one shard per case and isolated cases one
+    // shard per trial, exactly as the runner plans.
+    const files = expandTrialShards(expandCaseShards(selectPaidTestFiles(collectPaidTestFiles(), tier).selected, tier), tier).keys;
     const excess = files.reduce((n, file) => n + Math.max(0, resolvePaidShardBudget([file]).timeoutMs - DEFAULT_SHARD_TIMEOUT_MS), 0);
     return Math.ceil((Math.ceil(files.length / DEFAULT_JOBS) * DEFAULT_SHARD_TIMEOUT_MS + excess) / 1000 * 1.05);
   };
@@ -186,7 +187,8 @@ test('current detach supervision covers the live-census floor', () => {
   expect(floorFor('gate')).toBe(21_725);
   expect(gateTimeout).toBe(49_320);
   expect(gateTimeout).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(floorFor('gate'));
-  expect(floorFor('periodic')).toBe(22_481);
+  expect(floorFor('periodic')).toBe(33_821);
+  expect(periodicTimeout).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(floorFor('periodic'));
 });
 
 for (const jobs of [1, 2, 3]) test(`FIFO bound covers partial durations with ${jobs} workers`, () => {

test/helpers/eval-store.ts

@@ -402,6 +402,8 @@ export interface TrialOutcomeRecord {
   sha?: string;
   lane?: string;
   recorded_at?: string;
+  /** History series key: a hash of the case's own touchfiles (GLOBAL_TOUCHFILES excluded), stamped by the report job. */
+  series_identity?: string;
 }
 
 /** First line of free text, stripped of @-mentions and control characters, capped. */
@@ -434,6 +436,7 @@ function trialRecordProblems(r: any): string[] {
   if (r.execution !== 'executed' && r.execution !== 'reused') problems.push('execution invalid');
   if (!['shard', 'junit', 'backfill'].includes(r.source)) problems.push('source invalid');
   if (r.error !== undefined && (typeof r.error !== 'string' || r.error.length > TRIAL_ERROR_MAX)) problems.push('error invalid');
+  if (r.series_identity !== undefined && (typeof r.series_identity !== 'string' || !/^[\w.-]{1,64}$/.test(r.series_identity))) problems.push('series_identity invalid');
   return problems;
 }
 

test/paid-free-boundary.test.ts

@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ function runnerDependencies(root: string, entries: string[]): string[] {
     const source = fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf8').replace(/^#![^\n]*(?:\n|$)/, '\n');
     let audited = source;
     if (relative === 'test/helpers/test-selection.ts') {
-      if (createHash('sha256').update(source).digest('hex') !== '4d2fbcb6249e8d22453d25bfe9b18ee0f4568bbec071918675c38a455d4e1e08') {
+      if (createHash('sha256').update(source).digest('hex') !== '052ad5a52472bcb41db04c9f21fe6a819e9547768468f7e5d390e0014b567677') {
         throw new Error('Re-audit the historical touchfile map loader before excluding its computed import');
       }
       audited = source.replace('`const m = await import(${JSON.stringify(dataPath)});`,', "'',");

test/paid-report-fail-open.test.ts

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ import * as os from 'node:os';
 import * as path from 'node:path';
 import { spawnSync } from 'node:child_process';
 import { parseRunManifest, type PaidRunManifest, type SliceResult } from '../scripts/test-paid-shards';
+import { stampTrialSeries } from '../scripts/eval-trial-series';
 
 const ROOT = path.resolve(import.meta.dir, '..');
 const RULE_A = 'test/skill-e2e-fail-open-alpha.test.ts';
@@ -148,8 +149,12 @@ describe('behavior and quarantined panels through --report', () => {
     const summary = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(path.join(r.dir, 'collector-outcomes.json'), 'utf8'));
     expect(summary.version).toBe(2);
     expect(summary.panels[0]).toMatchObject({ case: ID, status: 'PASS', split: true, failsLane: false });
-    const history = fs.readFileSync(path.join(r.dir, 'trial-outcomes.jsonl'), 'utf8').trim().split('\n').map(line => JSON.parse(line));
-    expect(history.map(h => [h.trial, h.outcome])).toEqual([[1, 'passed'], [2, 'failed'], [3, 'passed']]);
+    const outcomesFile = path.join(r.dir, 'trial-outcomes.jsonl');
+    const history = () => fs.readFileSync(outcomesFile, 'utf8').trim().split('\n').map(line => JSON.parse(line));
+    expect(history().map(h => [h.trial, h.outcome])).toEqual([[1, 'passed'], [2, 'failed'], [3, 'passed']]);
+    expect(stampTrialSeries(outcomesFile)).toBe(3);
+    expect(new Set(history().map(h => h.series_identity)).size).toBe(1);
+    expect(history()[0].series_identity).toMatch(/^[0-9a-f]{16}$/);
   });
 
   test('behavior 1/3: red', () => {

test/paid-retry-supervision.test.ts

@@ -230,8 +230,8 @@ test('detached PR fallback and release commands cover their actual default worke
     )) / 1000 * 1.05));
   }
   const detachedReleaseWall = Number(scripts['eval:bg:release'].match(/--timeout (\d+)/)?.[1]) * 1000;
-  expect(releaseFloors).toEqual([21_725, 22_481]);
-  expect(releaseFloors.reduce((total, floor) => total + floor, 0)).toBe(44_206);
+  expect(releaseFloors).toEqual([21_725, 33_821]);
+  expect(releaseFloors.reduce((total, floor) => total + floor, 0)).toBe(55_546);
   expect(detachedReleaseWall).toBe(116_700_000);
   expect(detachedReleaseWall).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(releaseWall + 120_000);
 });